Japan Chart Pack The calm before the storm Recent economic data have mostly been positive, with industrial production and retail sales climbing to multi-year highs, and corporate profitability exceptionally strong. However, investors are... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Final PMIs (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The latest batch of data on the euro-zone provided rather mixed signals for the European Central Bank ahead of its Governing Council meeting on Thursday. But we still think more policy action is... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The Funding for Lending Scheme can still support mortgage lending The restrictions placed on the extension to the FLS to slow the expansion of mortgage lending will have a very limited direct impact. Lenders who did not qualify for the extension simply made heavy... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Feb.) February’s CIPS/Markit services survey suggested that the economic recovery still has considerable momentum but is not prompting inflationary pressures to build. 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Initial thoughts on the National People’s Congress The unchanged GDP growth target is the big news on the opening day of the National People’s Congress, though the government has given itself more wriggle room on growth than may immediately be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s economy set to slow in 2014 GDP growth in Australia accelerated in the final quarter of last year. Looking ahead, we expect the economy to lose momentum over the coming quarters, as the boom in mining investment continues to... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ukraine crisis a bigger threat to grain markets than energy Whilst we do not expect significant disruption to the supply of any commodities, there is much greater potential for exports of grain from the Ukraine to be interrupted than energy supplies from... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging European manufacturers lead the way Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have lost some momentum last month. But while manufacturing PMIs have slumped in both Emerging Asia and Latin America, manufacturers in Emerging Europe... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Ukraine crisis mean for energy prices? A further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine could return the price of a barrel of Brent to the highs of around $125 seen in the early days of the “Arab Spring”. However, we would expect any such... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) The first CoreLogic house price reading of 2014 suggests that prices started the year on a strong note. But this figure reflects supply and demand conditions from several months ago. The recent... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Does Portugal need more help? The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes still on the cards The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) was able to keep interest rates on hold today as the shilling has remained stable despite the recent turmoil in EM currency markets. But a large current account deficit... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis a political, not economic, crisis for CEE The economies of Central and Eastern European are the most exposed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine, but as things stand the economic impact is likely to be limited. Admittedly, the crisis has... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does the Ukraine crisis threaten the European recovery? While the Ukraine crisis won’t have major effects on the European economy, it is another warning to the policymakers not to rely on a very positive global environment to sustain the region’s recovery... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher natural gas price may boost mining investment The biggest and longest-lasting impact from the recent rise in natural gas prices could be a boost to business investment in mining structures. That could add 0.3 percentage points to annual GDP... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
