Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still the economy’s weakest link It looks like Ukraine’s banking sector has withstood the political crisis in better shape than we had feared. Credit conditions are likely to tighten sharply over the coming months, but a messier... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators statistics (Q4 13) First-time buyers continue to drive the recovery in mortgage lending, and have done so without any rise in the share of mortgages requiring a small deposit. So far, it seems as though the Help to Buy... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s official figures show that a steady recovery in industrial production is still underway, despite the pound’s recent appreciation and the continued weakness of demand in key European export... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q4) Italy exited its long recession in Q4. But the recovery will struggle to gather enough steam this year to erode the country’s crushing public debt load. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Feb.) Although the latest BRC figures suggest that the recovery in retail sales lost some momentum in February, this does little to alter our view that 2014 should be a good year for consumer spending. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What are the relative prospects for euro-zone and US bonds? The risks of deflation in the euro-zone, particularly in light of the ECB’s continued inaction last Thursday, should keep the yields on ten-year core euro-zone government bonds well below those on US... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update No great urgency for additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its current policy settings at today’s Board meeting was no surprise. While we remain convinced that further easing will eventually be required (over and above... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will onshoring boost the recovery? There are some signs that the benefits of offshoring may be diminishing. Indeed, a reverse process of ‘onshoring’ could already be in train. But onshoring seems likely to be confined to the... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Disparity in Nordic inflation rates to be sustained for now February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Manufacturers outperforming Export growth was more or less flat at an EM-wide level in January, but there’s a growing divergence at a country level, with highly-open manufacturing economies in Central Europe and East Asia... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Pick-up in wage growth may be genuine It will be a few months yet before we know for sure whether or not the recent pick-up in wage growth is just a temporary distortion caused by the unusually severe weather, but it does chime with the... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slowing demand to weigh on coal prices We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as major consuming countries, including China as well as the US, take more steps to reduce pollution... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Why are so few homes being put up for sale? Recent months have seen a resurgence in first-time buyers, desperate to buy before house prices are pushed even further out of reach. But this has not been matched by a rise in the number of homes put... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is the office occupier market in Brussels about to turn a corner? The economic recovery, combined with improving business confidence, should help to boost occupier demand in Brussels this year. But with leasing incentives still generous and the economic recovery... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bounce back from weather disruption The unusually severe winter has been playing havoc with the incoming economic data but, once the weather returns to seasonal norms, we expect the US economy to perform strongly this year and in 2015... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
