Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s euro-zone industrial production figures got the year off to a disappointingly soft start and underline the fragility of the recovery in both industry and the broader economy. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it seems South Africa’s current account deficit fell to close to a two-year low in the final quarter of last year. But while on paper this appears to be good news, a deeper look reveals that it was driven... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand lowers policy rate, but further cuts unlikely Amid rising downside risks to growth, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) opted to cut its policy rate by 25bps today. With no clear sign that the political impasse will be resolved soon, we expect interest... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb) The drop in consumer confidence in February shows that consumers are increasingly doubtful about the benefits of Abenomics. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The expansion in the broad money supply ground to a halt in February, and the annual growth rates may well have peaked for now. However, the fundamentals for a further acceleration in bank lending... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Business Outlook Survey (Q1) Today's Business Outlook Survey suggests that demand should start to recover in Q3 after taking a hit from the consumption tax hike next quarter. 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Disparity in Nordic inflation rates to be sustained for now February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Loosening supply conditions foreshadow price slowdown New home sales shook off earlier weather effects to post a strong gain in January. Although existing home sales fell again, they should also recover before too long. Nevertheless, the bigger picture... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bail-out has bigger problems than current dispute Greece and the Troika may resolve the issues that have delayed the latest loan disbursement soon, but this will not resolve the fact that the country’s bail-out rests on unrealistic forecasts. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Online funds pushing interest rate liberalisation forward Interest rate liberalisation is happening faster than seemed likely even a few months ago as the sudden take-off of online money market funds has forced opponents of liberalisation to rethink their... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Crop prices supported by weather and conflict risks Grain and soybean prices are likely to be determined by weather factors and geopolitical risks over the next few months, but we believe that the risks lie to the downside, especially for soybeans. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Deflation still a bigger concern than inflation The global recovery appears to be strengthening, but we do not expect a generalised pick-up in inflation. In the US, core inflation may rise to 2% or more over the next two years as the economy... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Dilma’s first term in six charts Brazil’s president, Dilma Rousseff, looks set to triumph at elections later this year, despite the fact that economic growth during her time in office has been weaker than under any president since... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper and iron ore prices to fall further It has been our long-held (and non-consensus) view that copper and iron ore prices were set to fall significantly this year based on improving mine supply and slowing demand growth, notably in China... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Portuguese GDP (Q4) The latest Portuguese GDP figures will bolster hopes that the Government can follow in Ireland’s footsteps and make a clean break from its bail-out later this year. 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
