Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) The sharp fall in the trade deficit in February is welcome, and the shortfall may narrow slightly further in coming months. 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki softens its stance but rates are still likely to rise In light of the recent drop in inflation, Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged today and suggested that rate hikes were less probable than they had been in February. However, with... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK equities still not benefiting from the economic recovery Despite the comparative strength of the UK’s economic recovery, UK equity prices have continued to underperform those in other developed markets. While the recent underperformance may have partly... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb 14.) The surge in bank lending to businesses in February could be an early sign that small firms are becoming more optimistic. Either way, the growth rate of bank lending will rise further this year as the... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.14) Continued unseasonably severe weather, as well as a shortage of lots, kept housing starts subdued in February. But the size of the shortfall between starts and household formation means that... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) The partial rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in January can be partly blamed on the bad weather, which continues to constrain activity. Nevertheless, the persistent weakness in unfilled orders... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in CPI inflation to only 1.1% in February, from 1.6%, won’t influence tomorrow’s policy decision by the Fed, as it is solely due to base effects that will be reversed in March. Core inflation... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: slowdown here to stay Chile’s economy slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter of last year and growth looks set to remain weak throughout 2014-15 as the copper boom comes to an end. We are forecasting GDP growth of just... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions to remain tight The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but the bigger picture is that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers will have to keep monetary... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Mar.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) March’s ZEW survey showed that recent concerns over the international environment have had a negative effect on sentiment amongst German investors. But current conditions in the economy remain buoyant... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The kiwi can fly! New Zealand dollar to remain high It is tempting to conclude that the New Zealand dollar is set to fall sharply. After all, on several measures, it is the most overvalued of the G10 currencies. But with the key driver behind the... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is bank lending a reliable gauge of Japan's economy? Bank lending is a widely watched indicator of the health of Japan's economy. However, for a number of reasons, it may be less useful than many think. 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s falling gas exports underline need for reform A combination of stagnant production and rapidly increasing domestic consumption means that Egypt is set to become a net importer of natural gas in the near future. Support from the Gulf should help... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Muted reaction to Crimea vote, but significant risks remain 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update There is no hidden rot in the jobs numbers The slump in average weekly hours worked over the past few months is undoubtedly weather-related and we expect to see a bounce back in the spring. 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor New Zealand kiwi likely to remain overvalued The real effective exchange (REER) rate of the New Zealand dollar is around 20% higher than its average over the past ten years. But we are forecasting only a small depreciation in the kiwi, even as... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
