Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s “temporary” rate hike to be longer-lasting Having hiked interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, it was always likely that the Central Bank of Russia would leave them unchanged at today’s (scheduled) Board meeting... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) The latest trade figures show that the economic recovery is still struggling to broaden out to include exports. This looks likely to remain the case so long as the euro-zone’s economic recovery... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru and Chile: limited room for interest rate cuts this year The central bank of Chile (BCC) last night cut interest rates in response to a pronounced slowdown in economic growth, while Peruvian interest rates were left on hold after a pick-up in activity at... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria set to be confirmed as Africa’s largest economy The proposed rebasing and revision of historical Nigerian GDP data, due to be released at the end of this month, are likely to show that the country has overtaken South Africa as the region’s largest... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do elections in Hungary and Turkey hold in store? Ruling parties look set to win handsomely in parliamentary elections in Hungary and local elections in Turkey in the coming weeks. However, while the outcomes may be foregone conclusions, both... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily World as a whole should benefit from slower growth in China 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation not as alarming as it appears The sharp rise in regional inflation over the past year is starting to cause concern in some quarters. But a closer look reveals that the increase has been due to a jump in inflation in just two... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China fears resurface The past few days have seen renewed fears of a hard landing in China ripple through EM financial markets. These fears are nothing new and have in fact resurfaced at a time when EM export growth to... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What is the downside scenario for the housing market? The biggest risk facing the US housing market is that higher mortgage interest rates and tight credit conditions prevent a recovery in mortgage demand, meaning that mortgage-dependent buyers do not... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Structural change in China: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think some of these concerns are justified. But while... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Four reasons to be positive about property lending prospects Data from the Bank of England show that banks and building societies are continuing to scale back their exposure to the property sector at a rapid rate. But a growing body of survey and anecdotal... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Would the release of US strategic oil reserves be a game changer? The sale of crude oil from the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as unusual as some of the media headlines suggest, and the small test release, announced yesterday, is unlikely to have a... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China concerns still look exaggerated China’s continuing economic slowdown is clearly bad news for some commodity exporters. However, the world as a whole should actually benefit from slower but better-balanced growth in China. The risk... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renzi's recent reforms are the easy part The measures announced by the Italian PM yesterday represent a valuable short-term stimulus to the economy. But they also raise the cost of failing to implement more difficult structural reforms later... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) As the rise in retail sales in February didn’t get anywhere close to reversing all of the drop in the previous two months, the unusually bad weather is still hurting retailers. But since households... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How healthy is the outlook for the Czech investment market? The 80% rise in Czech investment volumes in 2013 was more than double the average recorded across the CEE region as a whole. But the underlying trend is far weaker than the headline numbers suggest... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
