UK Economics Update Labour Market Monitor (Mar.) Wednesday’s labour market figures look set to show that the unemployment rate resumed its downward trend at the start of 2014. But they also seem likely to confirm that there is still plenty of spare... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The rebound in industrial production in February suggests that the economy is waking up after hibernating during the past few months of unusually bad weather. This makes it even more likely that the... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s debt still a concern despite government deal The agreement between Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the Central Bank of the UAE to rollover $20bn of Dubai’s government debt marks another important step in the Emirate’s recovery from its 2009-10 crisis... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka’s growth outlook remains strong Sri Lanka recorded another quarter of strong growth in Q4 last year on the back of a continued recovery in external demand and accommodative monetary policy. These factors are likely to continue to... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Ukraine crisis still has potential to rattle markets further 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Idle industrial capacity likely to grow further The fall in manufacturing capacity utilisation over the past year casts further doubt over the Bank of Canada's expectation that the external sector can take over from households in driving economic... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Rising wages no guarantee of end to deflation The rise in base wages agreed upon in this year’s spring wage negotiations is far less impressive than some of the headlines suggest and is still consistent with real incomes falling. There is a good... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won’t ignore faster wage growth We don’t place much weight on the idea that the Fed would be happy to leave interest rates at near-zero until wage growth returned to 4%. Instead, we believe that a pick-up in wage growth to between 2... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne try to buy credit for the recovery? The Government’s failure thus far to gain credit for the recovery might point to a sizeable net giveaway in Wednesday’s Budget. But Mr Osborne’s room for manoeuvre is limited and, with a risk that... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial malaise could soon start to ease Although January’s euro-zone industrial figures made disappointing reading, the recent weakness of the sector partly reflects a plunge in energy production. Encouragingly, orders data paint a more... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in Emerging Asia to remain subdued Inflation in Emerging Asia has fallen back over the past few months and remains low by historical standards. Looking ahead, inflation looks set to remain fairly benign. Currency weakness over the past... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wider currency band doesn't shift fundamentals The People's Bank (PBOC) is keen to signal that this weekend's widening of the renminbi's trading band means that the currency's days as a "one-way bet" are over. But fundamentals still point to a... 16th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets complacent about Ukraine? Given the twin threats from worries about a “hard landing” in China and the crisis in Ukraine, it is perhaps surprising that global equities have not already fallen more than they have. We think that... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Mar.) Most of the decline in the University of Michigan's measure of consumer confidence to 79.9 in March, from 81.6, can be attributed to the unseasonably bad weather. After all, the usual determinants of... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on frontier markets Having been the darling of international investors over the past couple of years, a number of “frontier markets” have been cast in a negative light recently. In this Update, we take a step back to... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
