Commodities Update Surge in supply will weigh on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have fallen by nearly 20% since the beginning of this year, despite still strong Chinese imports. Prices may recover somewhat as we move into the second quarter, a time of seasonal... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More upside for Iraqi oil production The recent surge in Iraqi oil production is a good sign that Baghdad’s ambitious plans to dramatically increase output may be on the right path after stalling for the last year. However, there are... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The decline in annual headline inflation to 1.1% in February, from 1.5%, won't concern the Bank of Canada as it mainly reflects base-year effects in transportation and clothing. Meanwhile, the strong... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q1 2014 Businesses in China are not too worried at present about the state of the wider economy, but they are extremely concerned about the conditions facing their own firms. By contrast, Chinese households... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fed to continue winding down QE steadily As expected, the Fed announced a further reduction in its monthly asset purchases this month meaning it remains on course to end QE in the final quarter of the year. Nonetheless, it will still be... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the Land Registry reporting slower house price growth? House price growth may be entering double-digit territory on the Nationwide measure, but that is certainly not the case according to the Land Registry. The difference may reflect the inclusion of cash... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to stay weak as commodity boom ends The world economy is recovering, but we expect growth in Latin America to continue to trudge along at a rate of 2.5-3.0% over the coming years. Sluggish growth will be due in part to less supportive... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) February’s public finances figures confirmed that the UK’s budget deficit is continuing to make steady but slow downward progress. But the fiscal consolidation still has a very long way to go. 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Optimism over India’s elections may be misplaced Recent polls pointing to a rising margin of victory for the opposition BJP in the upcoming elections have boosted business confidence. But we think such optimism may be misplaced, with coalition... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor China’s growth slowing to 7.5% in Q1 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that renewed fears of a hard landing are overdone and that, although the economy has slowed going into this year, the rate of slowdown does not warrant a... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong growth in Q4, but weakness to come Colombian GDP growth beat expectations in the fourth quarter, but we doubt that the impressiveperformance can be sustained. Lower commodity prices, tighter global monetary conditions and weakercredit... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian recovery unlikely to gather much more pace Although Belgium’s economy has returned to growth, the Government has made little progress in tackling the country’s underlying labour market problems. As a result, we doubt that the Belgian recovery... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
