Emerging Europe Economics Update Domestic demand joining the recovery The breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe shows that, while exports remain the main driver of growth in the region, domestic demand is coming out of its recent slump. 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) The Halifax reported that house prices increased in February by more than they did over the whole of 2012. But on more stable measures price gains are not accelerating towards rates consistent with a... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman: fiscal policy set to provide less support to growth The rapid rise in Omani government spending in recent years has caused the budget surplus to narrow sharply and, if we’re right in expecting oil prices to fall over the coming years, the budget... 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Still on course for steady recovery A combination of severe winter weather in the US, New Year celebrations in China and a planned tax hike in Japan are making it more difficult than usual to assess the strength of the world economy... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC extends "forward guidance" While the National Bank of Poland pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of Q3 this afternoon, we think that the weakness of inflation should allow the MPC to leave interest... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone consumers yet to join the recovery While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay squeeze continuing to ease The squeeze on real earnings is continuing to ease, increasing the chances that 2014 is the first year that real pay rises since the financial crisis. Granted, the headline (three month average of the... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What might China's "war on pollution" mean for metals prices? At face value, the “war” on pollution and less investment-driven growth reiterated at China’s ongoing National People’s Congress (NPC) does not bode well for commodity demand (or prices). Indeed, we... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains neutral bias Although the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today and maintained its neutral bias, we suspect that the emphasis on the recent rebound in inflation in the accompanying statement... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update State & local government spending will soon rebound We’re not very concerned by the recent decline in State and local government spending when States’ own spending plans are consistent with a decent rebound both this year and next. This will compliment... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Italy's recovery gaining momentum? Italian economic prospects have improved over recent months, but we still think that GDP growth there will remain weaker than in the euro-zone as a whole, both in the short and medium term. 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values on course for steady gains We have not made material changes to the majority of our economic forecasts since our previous Analyst. Nevertheless, we have edged up our forecasts for capital value growth in a number of non-euro... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Euro-zone property prospects are improving Euro-zone property markets ended the year on strong note, with many seeing a material rise in investment market activity. Small falls in yields were also more common than not. Our economic forecasts... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb. 14) The drop in mortgage applications for home purchase in February, which could be related to the introduction of new mortgage lending rules during the previous month, mean that applications are at rock... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much could financial sanctions on Russia hurt the West? If the crisis in Ukraine escalates further, the West seems more likely to impose limited financial sanctions against Russia than to target trade in goods, especially energy. Some Russian officials... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
