UK Economics Update UK has only limited exposure to Ukraine crisis The UK economy should not feel any major adverse effects from the crisis in Ukraine since trade and financial exposures to it and Russia are small. The biggest threat is from higher commodity prices... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs point to robust non-oil growth in the Gulf The latest PMI data from the MENA region suggest that growth in non-oil sectors in the Gulf remains relatively robust, bolstered by strengthening external demand. The Egyptian economy is much weaker... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Feb.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q4) Today’s PMI showed that commercial property construction growth slowed a little in February. But it is still growing rapidly and suggests that developers are very confident about the prospects for... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: peso weakness unlikely to trigger interest rate hikes In contrast to several other emerging markets (EMs), Colombian policymakers have continued to refrain from taking steps to prevent the peso from weakening. As such, unless the currency begins to... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.13) Seasonal shifts in food prices are causing the usual volatility in inflation in the early months of 2014 including, it appears, a drop in the headline rate last month. Stepping back, price pressures... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Five years of 0.5% rates, at least one more to go March’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will mark the fifth anniversary of interest rates falling to their record low of 0.5% in 2009. Since the MPC only set out its new guidance last month... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates to stay on hold for now The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 2.5% today, as expected. For now, policy loosening looks to be off the agenda, but we suspect that a rate cut will be needed later in the year... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) Sluggish wage growth in Japan remains a major stumbling block to higher inflation and the overall success of Abenomics. 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Lower Canadian dollar points to rebound in inflation Although inflation has been uncomfortably low for some time now, the risk of a slide into deflation is still fairly modest. Long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Canadian... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing growth steady in February Final manufacturing PMIs for February, published today, reinforce the impression that global growth remains quite strong, notwithstanding the slowdown in China and slow growth in the euro-zone. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightening for Mexican manufacturers Manufacturing PMIs fell in both Brazil and Mexico last month. But while we expect growth in Brazilian manufacturing to remain sluggish for the foreseeable future, we continue to expect Mexican... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three things to watch at the National People’s Congress The National People’s Congress meeting that starts in Beijing this week will give us a chance to review progress on economic reform since the Third Plenum and to gauge where the leadership’s immediate... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) While the ISM manufacturing index rebounded to 53.2 in February, from 51.3, the extent of the increase was limited because of the ongoing severe winter weather. We expect a further improvement in... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the economic costs of the Ukraine crisis for Russia Although financial markets in Russia have tumbled today, the immediate fallout from the Ukraine crisis for Russia’s economy might well be less severe than many fear. Nonetheless, with growth already... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb. 14) January’s slowing of growth in the broad money supply and lending confirms that the recovery is neither generating inflation nor being fuelled by an unsustainable pick-up in borrowing. 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
