US Economics Weekly Fed needs to revise forward guidance soon There is a strong possibility that February's labour market figures, due out this Friday, will only make the Fed's job even harder. There is a chance that the unemployment rate could have hit the 6.5%... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Export recovery to support growth in Asia GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed that regional growth was unchanged from Q3. Improving prospects for exports bode well for the outlook, but domestic demand needs to cool in some... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2013) At first glance, the 2.9% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP suggests that the economy is on the right track. Unfortunately, growth was once again dependent on spending by heavily-indebted... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi hit by a policy wave The People’s Bank (PBC) dropped a large rock into the usually tranquil waters of China’s currency policy in February. Its attempt to reduce speculative inflows caused the largest single-month decline... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Venezuela’s economic crisis deepens Venezuela’s government has responded to the eruption of violent protests in the country over the past month with yet another overhaul of its exchange rate system – the aim being to provide more... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Congress finally gives the economy some breathing room Most of the recent weakness in housing activity is due to the unusually bad weather rather than the lagged effects of last year’s rise in mortgage rates. While higher mortgage rates have clearly taken... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s road to recovery to remain bumpy Economic growth in India dipped in the final quarter of 2013, having picked up in Q3. Looking ahead,we continue to expect the economic recovery to remain slow and uneven. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Asia slows as Emerging Europe recovers EM GDP growth has remained stable at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but this has masked a shift in the fortunes for individual regions. Emerging Europe appears to be experiencing a relatively... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q1 14) Respondents to the latest IPF Consensus survey more or less doubled their projections for capital value growth this year, reflecting a view that yields will fall more quickly than previously thought... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide (Feb.) & Land Registry (Jan.) House Prices The Nationwide and Land Registry report that house prices are continuing to grow steadily. Prices are now only 3% off their pre-crisis high according to the Nationwide, and will pass that benchmark by... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by domestic demand The breakdown of Polish Q4 GDP data confirmed that the recovery at the end of last year was driven by improving household consumption. Looking ahead, we expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Are equities in Latin America still overvalued? Equities in Latin America have fared worse than those in other emerging market regions since the start of 2014, losing over 8% of their value. As a result, the 12- month trailing price/earnings ratio... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish & Danish GDP (Q4) The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) February’s GfK/NOP survey showed consumer confidence holding steady at its joint highest level since August 2007. And there is scope for it to rise this year. 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
