UK Economics Chart Pack Strong spending recovery still underway Consumer spending still looks set to grow strongly this year. Real incomes should be boosted by a gradual pick-up in pay growth, falling inflation and further increases in employment. And with the... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore budget looks to the long term Today’s budget for the coming fiscal year targets a small surplus, which comes as no surprise given the reasonably upbeat short-term outlook for the economy and lingering concerns over inflation. But... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jan.) The sharp monthly drop in retail sales volumes in January is unlikely to herald the start of a consumer spending slowdown. Meanwhile, the fiscal consolidation remains on track despite January’s... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EM currency turmoil spreads to Africa The recent turbulence in EM currency markets has spread to some of Africa’s major economies, with the Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira slumping to all-time lows against the US$ this month. The South... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Would Hong Kong benefit from higher interest rates? Concerns are mounting that higher interest rates in the US could cause Hong Kong’s economy to slow sharply. With growth picking up and with little slack in the labour market, tighter monetary policy... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4 13) Among the recent weather-hit housing market activity data, the further improvement in the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure picture is a timely reminder that the fundamentals of the housing market... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Five reasons why we’re still upbeat on Mexico GDP data due to be released tomorrow are likely to show that Mexico grew by just 1.0% y/y in Q4 of last year, and by only 1.2% over 2013 as a whole. Even so, we think that there are still good reasons... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM world is facing a difficult year The EM recovery is still struggling for momentum, with our GDP tracker suggesting that the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have stalled. On the positive side, it seems unlikely that the most... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sluggish manufacturing data to keep prices subdued Weaker manufacturing PMIs published today underline the downside risks to the prices of industrial metals from the continued slowdown in China and the fragility of the recovery in the euro-zone. Even... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How far and fast might non-prime capital values rise? As we had been anticipating, non-prime property has started to outperform prime. Our forecast is that average non-prime capital values rise by 10% this year and about 6% in 2015. That will be stronger... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s euro-zone PMIs suggest that the region’s recovery is struggling to gather pace. This will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar set to remain the region’s star performer Qatar is unlikely to return to the double-digit growth rates seen over the past decade, but the government’s ambitious investment programme means that GDP should still expand by a healthy 5% or so... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How quickly can housebuilding return to pre-crisis levels? Housing starts are growing rapidly on the back of an improving economy and the Help to Buy scheme. But with builders already facing material and labour shortages, and the demand for new homes partly... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Time to revisit Africa’s growth story? Signs that the recent turbulence in EM markets is spreading to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have caused some to question the region’s upbeat growth story. But while some vulnerabilities are building and a... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Thailand's political crisis and its economic implications Thailand has been mired in a political crisis since November last year which continues to show no clear sign of resolution. The prolonged impasse has disrupted economic activity and is hurting the... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
