UK Economics Weekly Low inflation should ease output gap dangers The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to drop the unemployment threshold and introduce phase two of forward guidance does not guarantee that interest rates will stay on hold for a long time yet... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP figures don't preclude the need for ECB action Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic situation improved marginally at the end of last year, but the ECB will need to take further action to ensure that the recovery... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Making sense of the diverging surveys Wide divergences have emerged in the results of the sentiment surveys in recent months. These typically reflect the design of each survey, as more backward-looking measures have climbed to record... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Prolonged political crisis holding back growth in Thailand Following an inconclusive general election, Thailand’s power vacuum is likely to persist for a couple more months at least. Most attention has been focused on the potential short-term economic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) The discouraging decline in December's manufacturing sales volumes and downward revision to the previous month dampens our view that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will mortgage demand recover this year? Mortgage demand is struggling to shake off the impact of last year’s jump in mortgage interest rates. But providing that the wider economic and labour market recovery remain on track, we see no reason... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s industrial production data join a growing list of economic releases affected by the unusually bad weather. Given that the weather has been just as severe in February, the lost output may not... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad US weather driving commodity prices in unexpected ways Adverse weather is affecting US commodity prices in some obvious and some more surprising ways. As would be expected, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities have surged. But less... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How does economic reform affect emerging market assets? The implementation of growth-enhancing and risk-reducing economic reforms provides long-run benefits to investors in emerging markets. But as the recent turbulence attests, other factors play a more... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 talking shop moves to Sydney Policy-makers from some emerging economies may air their grievances about US monetary policy at next week’s G20 gathering, but there is no consensus among them on what the Fed should be doing. More... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: no rate cuts for now Despite the recent economic slowdown, high inflation and a widening current account deficit mean that the Peruvian Central Bank will probably have to keep monetary conditions tighter than they would... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia keeps one eye on the ruble The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left interest rates on hold today but signalled that it was ready to tighten policy if there were signs that the recent fall in the ruble was fuelling inflation... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) The modest growth of the euro-zone economy in Q4 will have done little to address the deep-seated problems of the peripheral countries or to head off the dangers of deflation across the currency union... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data show recovery gathering steam This morning’s raft of flash Q4 GDP estimates from Central and South Eastern Europe was, for the most part, stronger than our above-consensus forecasts and suggests that growth in Emerging Europe as a... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese New Year usually delivers a spike in consumer price inflation, however inflation remained subdued in January. 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
