Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar still too high to energise economy The recent slide in the Canadian dollar doesn't greatly improve Canada's economic prospects. The sharp decline looks overdone in our mind and we wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound, at least a... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s economy slows sharply at end of 2013 Activity data released today suggest that Chile’s economy slowed sharply in the final months of last year. Growth in Q4 as a whole may have slipped to just 2.7% y/y – its slowest rate in almost four... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the hryvnia? The hryvnia has fallen sharply over the past few days, reaching 9/$ earlier today, its lowest level since 2009. We estimate that the currency needs to fall by a further 15% or so, to around 11/$, in... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Central Europe – where are the prospects for industrial rents brightest? The recent surge in industrial confidence in Hungary increases the upside risks around our forecasts for industrial rental value growth. But after taking account of existing spare capacity, the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should Sweden be worried about deflation? Sweden is less at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation than the euro-zone, despite the fact that CPI inflation is currently lower in the former. 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First Polish rate hike still looks some way off Poland’s economic recovery has caused some MPC members to become more hawkish on interest rates. But with inflation likely to remain below target both this year and next, we still think the first rate... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will policy help or hinder the recovery? Provided that low inflation allows monetary policy to remain very loose for some time yet and a further sharp rise in the pound can be avoided, policy should not be major hindrance to the economic... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling real wages partly mitigated by rising employment The threat to the economic recovery from falling real wages may not be as big as many fear, given the trade-off between higher pay or more job creation. Nonetheless, consumers are understandably far... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Brighter signs don't preclude need for more policy action Despite the recent bout of disappointing global economic news and financial market turbulence, economic indicators like the PMI suggest that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery gained a bit of a momentum... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Outlook for 2014 still bright The economic recovery appears to have remained strong at the start of 2014. Although the composite CIPS/Markit activity index weakened again in January, it still points on the basis of past form to... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy more unbalanced than before Although economic growth improved over the second half of last year, averaging an estimated 3.0% annualised, there is still no sign of a much-needed rebalancing towards exports and business investment... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How are Saudi consumers faring? Saudi consumer spending has grown by 6-7% a year over the past decade, but low-profile indicators suggest that household spending may have lost some steam. 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.14) The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in January means that applications have repeated the pattern of falling in one month and rising in the next for six months now. The outlook for home... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Composite PMI (Jan.) Whilst December’s retail sales data suggested that consumers showed little festive cheer, January’s final composite PMI survey indicated that the wider euro-zone recovery may have gained a little... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jan.14) The further deterioration of the CIPS/Markit services survey in January after the slight slowdown in GDP growth in Q4 may raise concerns that the recovery is starting to lose momentum. But there are... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazilian drought heats up coffee and sugar markets High global stocks of sugar and coffee should be more than ample to cover any damage to crop production from the heat wave in Brazil. However, the amount of rain over the next few months will be the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
