Although economic growth improved over the second half of last year, averaging an estimated 3.0% annualised, there is still no sign of a much-needed rebalancing towards exports and business investment. The breakdown reveals that the unbalanced nature of this growth actually worsened. Accordingly, this above-potential growth is unlikely to be sustained unless exports and business confidence improve measurably. Unfortunately, competitiveness challenges and the turmoil in emerging markets suggest that this improvement may be a long time coming.
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