Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have been repeated in January. We estimate that payrolls rose by a healthy 200,000 in the first month of this year. By nudging up to 6.8% from 6.7%, however, the unemployment rate may have reversed some of December’s decline.
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