Latin America Economics Update Colombia: will the next move in interest rates be down? Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% today but, with the risks to economic growthskewed to the downside and inflation under control, we think that rate cuts are becoming... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to make of the removal of gold import restrictions The RBI today announced the removal of restrictions on gold imports, and the withdrawal of the “20:80” rule which dictates that 20% of gold imports must be re-exported. There are no further details or... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Limited impact from Chinese rate cut Financial markets in Emerging Asia have on the whole had a fairly quiet month despite the recent Chinese rate cut and the expansion of the Bank of Japan’s programme of quantitative easing. 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Pricing to market” not the whole story Japanese exporters commonly “price to market”, meaning they don’t allow the impact of exchange rate shifts to feed through fully into the prices paid by their foreign customers. This has become an... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What does the Chancellor have up his sleeve? While the rumour mill has been fairly silent, the Chancellor is surely piecing together a small package of measures for his Autumn Statement to provide a pre-election boost to households’ finances. A... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update ECB to join Bank of Japan in full-blown QE Although the Fed ended its asset purchases in October, and is set to start raising policy rates in the coming months, global monetary conditions will remain ultra-loose as the ECB and BoJ undertake... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What if the Swiss vote to “save our gold”? This weekend the Swiss public will probably reject a proposal to force the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to increase its gold holdings. Nonetheless, a surprise “yes” would provide a significant boost to... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities surge following rate cut The recent benchmark rate cut triggered sharp gains in China’s stock markets in the last week of November. Meanwhile, although trading volumes in the newly-launched Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the euro fallen far enough? The fall in the euro since the spring looks likely to have at least some upward effect on both the growth of euro-zone exports and the level of euro-zone consumer price inflation. But the ECB should... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors set to flee emerging market assets? October saw net outflows from global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging market (EM) assets for the first time since March. This was primarily driven by net outflows from funds that invest in... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) Q3 GDP data released today underline that the economy has remained lacklustre in the early stages of PM Modi’s tenure, and add to the case for the RBI to begin cutting interest rates as soon as at... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Oct.) The large rise in South Africa’s trade deficit in October was largely down to an unusually large increase in oil imports, which is unlikely to be sustained. Nevertheless, the external shortfall will... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update New retail supply will dampen rental growth in the Polish regions Polish retail sales growth will continue to improve as labour market conditions strengthen. While this will support further retailer expansion, the volume of shopping centre space being developed and... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Q4) The UK commercial property forecasting community thinks that rental values will rise every year until 2018 and by an average of about 2.5% p.a. But presumably reflecting expectations of a continued... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) The 0.1% q/q increase in Brazil GDP in Q3 means that the economy has limped out of recession, but the weakness of growth underlines the scale of the challenge facing the new team of economic... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
