Global Markets Update Are Bunds the new JGBs? While we are still not convinced that the euro-zone is the new Japan, despite the many similarities in their economic predicaments, we are increasingly of the view that the 10-year Bund yield will... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to a four-month low just ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season shouldn’t worry retailers. Much more important is the improvement... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equities take another tumble Low oil prices have continued to take their toll on equity markets in the Gulf. Meanwhile, pressure on the Egyptian pound has intensified over the past month and we think the authorities will need to... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further monetary tightening probably needed in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria raised interest rates and devalued the naira in order to reduce the pressure on the currency and stem the depletion of its foreign exchange reserves. But we suspect that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.) The strongest month-on-month increase in house prices in seven months in September is further evidence that, after the recent slowdown, the pace of house price growth is picking up again. But while a... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade rebounds, but outlook still poor Data for September showed the biggest monthly rise in world trade in over two years. What’s more, there was some progress on multilateral trade negotiations at the G-20 Brisbane summit. However, there... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3) Strong government spending drove a small pick-up in Peru’s GDP growth in the third quarter. But the bigger picture is that most other parts of the economy remained weak. 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Troika call to pay taxes faster may hurt Greek recovery The Greek Government does not appear to have been too rattled by last month’s market turmoil, sticking to its budget plan despite opposition from the Troika. But it may come under pressure to seek... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy in Hungary to stay loose The National Bank of Hungary left interest rates unchanged today and, in spite of negative inflation, the MPC appears to be in no mood to resume policy easing. But equally, there will be little... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) The modest pick-up in South African GDP growth in Q3 reinforces the picture that the economy is struggling to recover from a strike-induced slowdown in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, upwards... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Oct.) The lack of a recovery in mortgage lending reflects a sharp slowdown in housing demand. However, with mortgage rates falling to new record lows, the economy set for robust growth and uncertainty over... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q3) & French Business Confidence (Nov.) The second release of Q3 German GDP confirmed that the economy expanded by a meagre 0.1%. The breakdown offered some hope, with consumer spending and exports rising strongly, but surveys suggest that... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What impact is a weaker yen having on imports? The sharp fall in the yen over the last two years seems to have slowed the long-term rise in imports of manufactured goods relative to domestic production. However, even a further weakening of the... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3 Revised) Singapore's economy began to show signs of life in the third quarter, with manufacturing output picking up more than previously thought. The gradual recovery in the global economy and healthy real... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
