Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers unlikely to follow China’s lead There is little reason to think that the decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower interest rates will trigger a spate of copycat responses from other EM central banks. China’s capital account... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies continue to lose ground Most of the region’s currencies have continued to depreciate against the US dollar so far this month, extending a period of weakness that began back in August. Looking ahead, while we think that the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese rate cuts to have limited impact on metals demand Industrial metals prices rallied on the news of Chinese interest rate cuts. However, while the central bank’s move suggests the authorities will continue with targeted stimulus measures, the cuts... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Using the PMIs to compare growth rates Business surveys, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Indices published by Markit, provide a timely guide to the health of individual economies, but they are not directly comparable across countries. In... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s central bank takes some heat out of the ruble crisis Aggressive hikes in interest rates coupled with the central bank’s decision to accelerate the move towards a fully floating currency have helped to stabilise the Russian ruble over the past week. But... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM monetary policy takes divergent paths Monetary policy is heading in differing directions across the emerging world. Several economies in Central and Eastern Europe, Asia (notably China) and Latin America have lowered interest rates in... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Plenty of upside for gold despite likely Fed tightening Gold remains out of favour with Western investors and commentators focused on the prospect of tighter US monetary policy and further dollar strength. But we see scope for a decent recovery in the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Investors gain confidence in reform outlook The surge in the Sensex stock index to an all-time high in November has come amid signs that Prime Minister Modi is now more willing to push through wideranging reform following the BJP’s decisive... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira weakness likely to prompt rate hike tomorrow We think that the Central Bank of Nigeria will respond to the recent slump in the naira by raising interest rates tomorrow. Our best guess is that interest rates will rise from 12.00% to 13.50%, but... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s rise in the German Ifo survey is a relief after the fall in the PMI and leaves the key surveys painting a somewhat mixed picture. But both point to slow growth at best, which will do little... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Financial conditions index overstates prospects for GDP growth The Bank of Canada's revamped monetary conditions index signals that financial conditions looser than they have been for most of the past 15 years. Normally GDP growth would be expected to accelerate... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The stronger than expected 2.3% core inflation reading in October won't change the Bank of Canada's mind that ultra low interest rates are needed to tackle the weakness in the real economy that would... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China switches tack with rate cut boost for larger firms China’s rate cuts will ease financing strains, particularly for large firms, but the impact on GDP growth is likely to be small. There is absolutely no reason to believe that concerns over the level... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could good deflation turn bad? Recent outright falls in commodity, import, producer and retail prices should provide a timely fillip to households and firms. However, with CPI inflation already well below target and set to fall to... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
