Emerging Markets Economics Update Where could the next EM rate surprise come? Policymakers in several EMs – notably China – have surprised the markets with unexpected rate decisions over the past month or so. In this Update we identify the EM central banks that are most likely... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China’s interest rate cut not a major boost for EM equities 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) The modest increase in new home sales in October, which only occurred because September’s reading was itself revised downwards, is consistent with a subdued new homes market. Nevertheless, with credit... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A bumper holiday shopping season in store The economic backdrop is a much more reliable guide to the holiday shopping season than sales on Black Friday. With employment rising rapidly, real incomes being boosted by falling gasoline prices and... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods/Personal Inc. & Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods and personal income and spending reports together suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.5% annualised, whereas we had previously expected it to be closer to 3... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off eases, while Ukraine’s bonds slump A combination of interest rate hikes, a move towards a fully floating ruble and steps to limit the provision of ruble liquidity appear to have arrested the slump in Russia’s currency. Elsewhere, the... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov. & Q4) The CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided another encouraging sign that retail sales have grown strongly Q4, despite unseasonably warm weather earlier this quarter. What’s more, the prospects look... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Will the rupee prevent policy loosening? Markets seem certain that the RBI will keep interest rates on hold next week, but we are not so sure. Inflation has fallen much further than most had expected, GDP growth is still weak by past... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Second Estimate (Q3) The second estimate of Q3 GDP indicated that the end of the squeeze on real pay is helping consumers to drive the overall recovery. What’s more, the prospects look bright for continued strong growth... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Can rental growth take up the baton? The drop in yields has been such a crucial driver of commercial property capital values over the past year or so, that rental growth will only partially fill the void, if as we expect, yields find a... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Retail spending picks up, but recovery uneven There has been a gradual recovery in retail spending in Emerging Asia during 2014. The top performing countries are Indonesia and Malaysia, where retail sales are expanding at a double digit pace. In... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower oil prices will hit growth of fledgling LNG industry The impact of lower oil prices will be reflected in global oil-indexed gas prices in coming months. This will put pressure on the profitability of upcoming higher-cost LNG projects, most of which are... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Nov.) Despite a small rise this month, small business confidence remains subdued. However, shrinking spare capacity and higher input costs point to rising price pressure. 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What impact will the rate cut have, and what happens next? We foresee two more cuts in China's benchmark lending rates by the middle of next year but not the sizeable acceleration in credit that would be needed for a substantial pick-up in GDP growth... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's stronger than expected 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales validates the recent strength in employment growth in suggesting that the economy ended the third quarter on a reasonably solid footing... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
