Capital Daily Falling inflation in the euro-zone to trigger full-blown QE soon 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack PBOC may be resuming FX intervention There are tentative signs that the People’s Bank (PBOC) has resumed currency intervention. Foreign exchange purchases by all financial institutions, a proxy for purchases by the PBOC, turned positive... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE’s coming, probably in January It seems clear that the ECB will soon embark on a full-blown quantitative easing programme incorporating sovereign debt purchases. The key questions now are when and how big? While we think that the... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian rates on hold amid high inflation The Central Bank of Egypt left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 9.25% today and, with growth picking up and inflation still high, it looks unlikely that July’s rate hike will be reversed any... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014 Preview George Osborne will present his fifth Autumn Statement on 3rd December under mounting pressure from his fiscal and opinion poll deficits. Despite this, he seems unlikely to panic and abandon his tough... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Nov.) November’s fall in German inflation to a five-year low highlights the absence of price pressures in even the strongest parts of the euro-zone. And while German unemployment remains very low, this... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone monetary data highlighted the sluggish nature of the recovery in the region’s banking sector and will help to maintain the pressure on the ECB to provide further stimulus. 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) November’s EC business and consumer survey did nothing to relieve the pressure on the European Central Bank to provide more policy support to the euro-zone economy in the form of a full-blown... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation peaks in Brazil and Mexico Having increased steadily over the course of this year, there are signs that inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has now peaked. Data to the middle of November suggest that it should drop back in both... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) November’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further evidence that, in spite of continued weakness in the euro-zone, growth in Central and Eastern Europe has picked up in Q4. The breakdown of the... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus ECB on hold: will commercial property in the periphery outperform? A weak economic outlook for the euro-zone means that we do not expect particularly strong rental growth in the coming years. But, with interest rates on hold and bond yields expected to stay low... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Deflation concerns spread across the emerging world Following sharp falls in commodity prices, concerns have started to mount that parts of the emerging world are about to slip into a damaging period of deflation. Although we think that inflation is... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q3) The Philippines economy grew at its slowest pace in more than three years in the third quarter. However, a pick-up is likely over the coming quarters, as government spending recovers and exports... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher core inflation doesn't change rate outlook The rise in core inflation further above target doesn't change the interest rate outlook, since that increase mainly reflects the temporary effects of a weaker currency, which the Bank believes will... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to core euro-zone bond yields? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme will probably not be decisive enough to prompt a rise in inflation expectations like that which lifted US Treasury yields during the Fed’s bouts of QE... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
