Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) Having only just managed to limp out of recession in Q3, October’s industrial production data suggest that Brazil’s economy continued to struggle at the start of Q4. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (Nov.) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q3) The commercial property construction PMI fell for the second month in a row in November. But that does little to alter the picture of a strengthening occupier market. Today’s better mergers and... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds fire, but paves the way for imminent rate cuts RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept both the repo and the reverse repo rates on hold at 8.00% and 7.00% respectively today, but the accompanying statement suggests that rate cuts are likely as soon as at... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's first rate hike still a long way off The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provided no surprises in its monetary policy decision today, keeping its policy rate at 2.5% and once again signalling that it has no intention of changing its... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Wage growth slowed in October, but may see a boost from higher winter bonuses by year-end. However, growth in base pay is unlikely to accelerate much further. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in core inflation won't be sustained The pick-up in the official core inflation measure this year is partly due to one-off factors. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada also pays close attention to alternative measures of underlying... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster household spending growth likely in Q4 Faster income growth and lower gasoline prices bode well for household spending prospects this holiday season. We expect somewhat faster consumption growth of 3.0%. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More evidence that global growth slowed in November Final manufacturing PMIs for November confirm that global growth is slowing, with activity weaker in the euro-zone, Japan and China. However, the further slump in the oil price, to around $70 per... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Uruguay: Vásquez victory unlikely to reinvigorate growth Continuity of economic policy following Mr. Vásquez’s victory in Uruguay’s presidential election is likely to ensure that inflation remains high and economic growth relatively weak. We are forecasting... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The continued strength of the ISM manufacturing index is starting to look a bit odd when set against the economic backdrop and the other survey evidence. We remain optimistic about the outlook for... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Brazil Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The November manufacturing PMI surveys continue to point to a sustained acceleration in Mexican manufacturing growth over the coming months. By contrast, another fall in the Brazilian PMI signals a... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil leads the way lower The prices of most commodities fell in November, dragged down by the sharp fall in oil prices. However, supply concerns buoyed the prices of some agricultural commodities and industrial metals... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB, BoJ and People’s Bank to loosen policy further Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
