US Economics Update Losing faith in the ISM surveys We are concerned that the ISM activity indices are painting a misleading picture of the strength of the economy. We’re inclined to place more faith in the Markit PMIs, which point to more realistic... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Smaller EM manufacturers leading the way The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world has improved in recent months, supported by a pick-up in some of the smaller EM economies. That being said, EM... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Venezuela’s oil problems spill over? Would a sovereign default in Venezuela, which now seems increasingly likely given the plunge in the price of oil, cause upheaval in the global financial markets? We suspect not, even though a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira to remain overvalued despite fall in oil prices The latest estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October suggested that the Turkish lira remains one of the most “fundamentally” overvalued emerging market currencies that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Should we be worried about a default in oil-dependent Venezuela? 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Chancellor announces major changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax Reforming Stamp Duty Land Tax from a slab to a graduated system is certainly an improvement, and should give a short-term boost to housing transactions. But it will also give another boost to... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC swayed by improving growth outlook The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, struck a dovish note. But it also stressed that the strength of the economy had eased... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation a bigger threat to Sweden than Budget chaos The new Swedish Government lost a key parliamentary vote on its Budget today, throwing politics in the country into turmoil and raising the possibility of fresh elections. But the potential upheaval... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can QE revive the euro-zone? The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to launch a full-blown quantitative easing (QE) programme this week or in January. But the political and economic limitations on the policy’s size and effects... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The low level of mortgage interest rates, signs of an easing in credit conditions and steady gains in employment have yet to be reflected in the data for mortgage applications. But we are optimistic... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Nov.) November’s Markit /CIPS services PMI provided reassurance that the UK’s recovery has remained strong despite a weaker global environment and is still not causing overall price pressures to build. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) November’s final composite PMI was revised down from the flash estimate and provided more evidence that the euro-zone economy has remained weak in Q4. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q3) Q3’s Swiss GDP figures suggested that the economy is still holding up well against the twin pressures of euro-zone weakness and the strong franc. But the Swiss National Bank may have more work to do... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. Our more... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
