UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3) The growth in mortgage lending has slowed, as new regulations have led to a decline in the share of high loan-to-value and loan-to-income mortgages. But alongside a further fall in the share of... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s industrial production data provided further signs that UK manufacturers are struggling against a crippling combination of weak overseas demand and a strong pound. But lower oil prices should... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How South Africa stands to gain from the slump in oil prices The sharp slide in oil prices will help to lower inflation in South Africa and is likely to make a significant dent in the country’s current account deficit. But while this may ease concerns about the... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Nov.) November’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provides more evidence that a combination of strong jobs growth, recovering pay growth and falling retail goods prices is invigorating the recovery in consumer... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set for another sharp fall Continued steep declines in food and fuel prices, as well as subdued core pressures, mean that consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped to a record low in November. This should bolster calls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Elevated pace of home building adding to risk of bust The recent strength in residential building permits relative to housing starts indicate that the pace of home building may accelerate over the near-term. But that only adds to our concern of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Brent crude likely to find strong support at $60 per barrel 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal market set for short-term recovery The international coal market continues to be oversupplied and demand remains fragile, not least in China. Despite a weak long-term outlook, there are some reasons to be optimistic in the short-term... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime yields to fall for another three years The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop in oil price hits Colombia’s financial markets The continued slide in the price of oil has sent Colombia’s financial markets tumbling over the past month. The peso has dropped to a five-year low against the dollar, breaching both our end-14 and... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in oil prices likely to push Angola into recession Angola will be one of the hardest hit EMs by the sharp fall in oil prices and we doubt that the authorities will be able to finance the likely current account deficit for more than a couple of years... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor External debt unlikely to spur widespread stress An increase in external debt has raised concerns that the emerging world faces a rough ride over the coming years as the dollar strengthens. However, our updated Capital Economic Risk Indicator (CERI)... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q3) Data released today show that India’s current account deficit widened again in Q3, but we doubt that policymakers will be too concerned. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports supported by stockbuilding Lower prices encouraged some opportunistic Chinese buying of commodities last month but the likelihood is that, in many cases, stocks were being replenished rather than this being a sign of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the lower oil price a threat to US Treasuries? It is sometimes argued that a lower oil price is a threat to Treasuries because oil exporters typically save a larger share of their income than oil importers and are more inclined to put their... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
