Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How low will Copenhagen property yields fall this time around? Historically low bond yields and a gradually improving rental growth outlook should mean that prime office yields set new lows in this cycle. However, in the absence of frenzied lending on Danish real... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Oil price slide elicits opposing policy responses in Russia & Norway 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The strong rise in retail sales in November shows that we were right to dismiss all the reports that holiday sales have been weak. The truth is that the rapid rises in employment mean that this... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How good is the outlook for residential rents? Over the past three years the surge in average house prices has dwarfed the rise in rents. However, over the next few years, those patterns look set to go into reverse, with rents likely to rise at an... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to plunge...temporarily The average inflation rate in the G7 is likely to fall to only around 1% next year because of the collapse in oil prices. A growing number of economies will experience a period of outright deflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC reforms unlikely to enhance effectiveness of policy While the reforms announced today to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) practices will improve the transparency of monetary policy, there is a risk that the potency of policy is undermined by the... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Reforming the coal sector remains a difficult prospect The likely part-privatisation of Coal India early next year shows that there is some appetite within government to reform the sector. But this is only a small step towards addressing a myriad of... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q3) Ireland’s small gain in GDP in Q3 leaves it on track to expand by close to 5% this year. But the published data may exaggerate the underlying strength of the economy. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR delivers another large rate hike – more to come The 100bp hike in Russian interest rates today was the minimum the central bank (CBR) had to deliver given the recent slide in the ruble . With the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) The November RICS survey reported that housing demand is continuing to contract, while prices are now expected to stall over the next quarter. But reforms to stamp duty, and the recent dip in mortgage... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Nov.) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in November to a two-and-a-half year low probably marks the trough and we expect it to rise gradually to 3.0-3.5% over the coming year. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Acc. (Oct.) & Hungary CPI (Nov.) Turkey’s current account deficit continued to decline in October and the fall in oil prices means it should narrow even further, towards 5% of GDP, over the coming months. Meanwhile, Hungary’s CPI... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
