Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment is an encouraging sign that confidence has so far not been hit by renewed problems in Greece, but the improvement is at odds with the weakness of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s flash euro-zone PMI survey suggested that the euro-zone economy probably lost steam in the fourth quarter and maintained the pressure on the ECB to deliver a major policy boost at its next... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of rate cuts The recent sharp slowdown in inflation, combined with dovish commentary from the RBI in its policy review earlier this month, have prompted India’s financial markets to price in the rising likelihood... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Manufacturing activity looks to have continued to cool in recent weeks in spite of last month's rate cut, an apparent loosening of lending controls and the return to normal operations at factories in... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (December) The flash manufacturing PMI was broadly unchanged in December and suggests that the sector remains in recovery mode. 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How did our 2014 forecasts stack up? In our final Weekly of the year we will be outlining our key forecasts for 2015. But this week we take a look back at how we did in 2014. Our downbeat forecasts for growth largely played out, as did... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombia maintained a relatively strong pace of growth in the third quarter, seemingly driven by construction and agriculture. However, given the recent oil price falls, we expect the economy to lose... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will frontier market equities continue to underperform? The sharp drop in oil prices has played a major role in the recent poor performance of the MSCI Frontier Markets (FM) Index, in which a small number of oil exporting countries have large weightings... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are markets right to be worried about Syriza? The prospect of gaining power has prompted Greece’s anti-bailout party Syriza to soften its stance on some issues. But markets are still right to be worried, given uncertainty around its plans for... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble African currencies have struggled again this month, with the South African rand coming under fire due to renewed concerns about the country’s current account deficit. Meanwhile, further falls in oil... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Nov.) & Empire State (Dec.) November’s industrial production figures build on the message from the recent retail sales data, with both showing that economic activity is unambiguously strong. This may well set the tone for the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Super-low gilt yields unwarranted by economic outlook UK markets have taken the meaning of the word “gradual” in the Monetary Policy Committee’s forward guidance on the pace of interest rate rises to a new extreme. Overnight index swap rates imply that... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
