Asia Economics Update Thailand's tourism recovery underway, but headwinds persist Thailand's tourism sector, which was a key growth driver before the most recent political crisis, finally looks to be on the mend, and should add much-needed support to the economy going into 2015... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's plans for a mid-2015 lift-off may need to be accelerated The FOMC statement issued today had something for everyone but, on balance, it does not dissuade us that unexpectedly strong employment growth over the next few months could still prompt the Fed to... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Downside risks multiplying Even with the US economic recovery moving into a higher gear, the outlook for Canada's economy is, at best, mediocre. Furthermore, there is now a significant risk that a perfect storm of a collapse in... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Russian ruble “extremely undervalued”? We are not convinced by the Russian finance ministry’s claim on Wednesday morning that the ruble is “extremely undervalued”. After all, Russia has undergone an enormous deterioration in its terms of... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Stamp duty reform will boost house prices by 3% to 5% in 2015 We estimate that the direct impact of the reform to stamp duty will boost house prices by a relativelyminor 0.6%. But the indirect effect of reducing upfront costs and boosting housing market... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia takes steps to limit fallout from ruble crisis The Central Bank of Russia has this afternoon announced a raft of measures that, while on their own aresmall, collectively suggest that the authorities have at last started to develop a strategy for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What should lower oil prices mean for other commodities? The conventional wisdom is that lower oil prices will add to the downward pressure on the prices of other commodities, many of which have indeed weakened. But while this may continue to hold true for... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for Dubai’s debts? The recent plunge in Dubai’s stock market, coming alongside a drop in oil prices, has rekindled fears that the Emirate could face renewed problems with its large corporate debts. For our part, we... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The recent slowdown in the growth rates of the monetary aggregates should not be interpreted as a sign that economic growth will soon slow. In fact, the surge in bank lending is a clear indication... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) November’s consumer prices figures leave inflation on course to fall someway below 1.0% next summer. But this won’t prevent the Fed from dropping its “considerable time” pledge from its policy... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where to watch for signs of stress in Russia’s banks The ruble crisis has sparked fears of contagion to Russia’s financial sector and a meltdown in the economy. A rise in interbank interest rates tends to be best indicator of stress in the banking... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Subdued German occupier demand offset by tight supply The subdued outlook for German GDP growth suggests that occupiers will be cautious with regard to expansion plans in 2015. Nevertheless, relatively tight office and retail supply conditions imply that... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Nov.) The raft of activity data from Russia for November contains some signs that investment has started to weaken but in general the picture is still of an economy that is stagnating rather than collapsing... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Russian crisis push the euro-zone into recession? The euro-zone’s direct trade and financial links with Russia are relatively weak. Nonetheless, even a modest negative impact at a time when the region is already facing renewed internal problems could... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
