Commodities Update Time to turn positive on base metals Somewhat stronger global growth – helped by the recent fall in oil prices – and, in some cases,uncertain supply prospects suggest that base metal prices should rise in 2015. However, we alsoexpect... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the Norwegian krone now undervalued? Although the Norwegian krone is on course to be the worst performing G-10 currency this year, having depreciated by almost 20% against the US dollar since January, we doubt that it is now... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lower oil prices grease the wheels of recovery Whilst falling oil prices should give an immediate boost to consumers’ discretionary spending power and help to provide a source of festive cheer, rising employment and a strengthening recovery in... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) Bank lending is growing at the fastest pace in years, but a range of leading indicators point to a slowdown in coming months. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global economy ending 2014 on a weaker note Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs suggest that the pace of global growth has cooled a little further in recent weeks. Nonetheless, the slowdown since the summer has been milder than the tone of media... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) “Black Friday” discounts provided a significant boost to November’s retail sales volumes. However, the underlying picture looks strong too and we remain optimistic on the prospects for retail spending... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth unlikely to have slowed sharply in Q4 Activity cooled in both industry and real estate in November but our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth across the wider economy nonetheless edged up on the back of stronger activity... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Instant reaction to Putin’s press conference The mounting economic crisis in Russia meant that there has been greater-than-usual focus on President Putin’s annual press conference, which is taking place this morning. In this Update we provide... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s German Ifo survey provided some comfort that recent overseas events have not yet hit the economy, but remains consistent with only weak rates of expansion. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rough end to the year for Asian markets Emerging Asia’s financial markets have not escaped the latest turmoil unscathed, but they have fared better than other EM regions. 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) New Zealand's economy accelerated in Q3, despite monetary tightening earlier in the year. However, we are still expecting a slowdown in 2015 and see little chance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
