BoE Watch 2015 rate rise still likely despite oil price plunge Heightened uncertainty regarding how weak inflation will be in 2015 and signs that the recovery has become less broad-based are likely to mean that the MPC keeps interest rates on hold at January’s... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Eight questions for 2015 We’ll start 2015 with some good news: having slowed to a five-year low of just 1.5% in 2014, we expect GDP growth in Latin America to accelerate this year. The bad news is that the pick-up is likely... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack December brings little cheer for producers Commodity prices finished 2014 on a downbeat note as a further sharp drop in the price of oil and the strength of the US dollar continued to weigh on all commodity prices. 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are markets being too complacent about the latest crisis in Greece? 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) November’s household borrowing figures (released last week) showed that weak housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. However, we doubt that this downward trend will persist... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Another bumper report The latest evidence suggests that the impressive 321,000 rise in non-farm payroll employment in November was no fluke. We expect that it was followed by a gain of 300,000 in December. That would push... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2015 budget suggests authorities calm about oil price fall Saudi Arabia’s 2015 budget statement doesn’t provide a clear steer about the path for actual government spending. Reading between the lines, it looks like the authorities will keep spending restrained... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit dangers darken euro-zone outlook There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Soft start shouldn’t preclude strong 2015 There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Dec.) Activity rates in the construction sector eased again in the final weeks of last year. Nevertheless, the PMI survey suggests that the supply of commercial property is growing steadily and that some of... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Demographic headwinds are picking up Firms were predicting strong gains in industrial output around the turn of the year despite some weakness in the latest figures on spending and production. But with the labour force now shrinking and... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Turkish inflation last month, to 8.2% y/y from 9.2% y/y, was an encouraging development, but core inflation remained extremely high. Elsewhere, December’s batch of manufacturing PMI... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The December PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally disappointing, suggesting that the region's manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The decline in small business confidence to a seven-month low in December underlines that economic momentum in Japan remains sluggish. 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Sri Lanka faces tight election contest Sri Lanka’s presidential election, scheduled for 8 th January, is shaping up to be much closer than expected, with the current president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, now facing a genuine challenge from... 24th December 2014 · 1 min read
