UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity ends 2014 on a low The housing market ended 2014 on a subdued note as demand, sales instructions, mortgage lending and transactions all declined. But with mortgage rates now also falling, and stamp duty reform set to... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices leaves Ecuador facing sharp slowdown Ecuador’s economy faces a slump this year as the sharp fall in oil prices threatens to open up large twin current account and budget deficits. As a result, we are revising down our forecast and now... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) With crude oil prices still in freefall, the deterioration in the monthly trade balance to a deficit of $0.6bn in November, from $0.3bn, is unfortunately only the start of what could develop into a... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will euro-zone deflation be good or bad? A bout of negative inflation could have some positive effects on the euro-zone economy by boosting real incomes and spending power. But the adverse effects on inflation expectations and peripheral... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The full effects of the plunge in oil prices on the US international trade deficit have yet to be felt, which means that the deficit may soon shrink to a five-year low of around $34bn. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate cuts, but spooked by Greece The National Bank of Romania’s Governor, Mugur Isarescu , struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, which suggests that the interest rate cut earlier today to a fresh record low of 2... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Benefits from Japan’s tourism boom remain limited The number of tourists visiting Japan reached a record high last year, and so did their aggregatespending. However, the volume of tourism expenditure remains small, and spillover effects from... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to within a whisker of 4%, as well as the rip-roaring performance of the labour market, are yet to be reflected in mortgage applications. But there... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why worry about deflation? The slump in the oil price means that headline inflation is likely to turn negative in the coming months in many advanced economies, just as it already has in the euro-zone. In general, deflation in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) & Unemployment (Nov.) December’s sharp drop in euro-zone inflation into negative territory could herald the start of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation in the currency union, which may in turn threaten to re-ignite... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will capital flows put further pressure on the euro? As investors’ confidence in the euro-zone has waned, overall inflows of portfolio capital from abroad have slowed. We suspect this trend may continue, undermining the euro further in the process. 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from Nigeria’s election Next month’s general election in Nigeria looks set to be the closest since democracy returned to the country in 1999. There is a clear risk that the outcome leads to a repeat of the violence around... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update GST will add to headwinds, but won't derail Malaysia's economy The introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April marks an important step towards strengthening Malaysia's public finances over the medium term. And while it will put upward pressure on... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy leaving sales tax weakness behind Recent data suggest that the economy has finally shed the manacles of the sales tax hike. However, demographic headwinds are building, and real wages continue to fall despite the recent slowdown in... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
