Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The latest Chinese trade data show a rebound in most commodity imports in December, led by oil. While some buying was probably opportunistic, taking advantage of lower prices, the data also support... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec.) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Inflation took another big step down in December and the halving in the oil price since the summer should mean that the UK comes within a whisker of deflation soon. But with the MPC focused on the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec.) While, on the face of it, the annual drop in the BRC’s measure of like-for-like sales in December is disappointing, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the underlying strength of retail... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure building for divided Polish MPC to cut rates The immediate outlook for Polish interest rates has been muddied by the increasingly acrimonious divisions that have opened up within the MPC. On balance it looks more likely that the Council will opt... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Weak exports and strong non-oil imports caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen in November, in spite of the sharp fall in oil prices. All in all, the data provide early signs that Turkey is... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec.) The strong rebound in the Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) in December stands in stark contrast with other business surveys which mostly weakened last month. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Stronger-than-expected export growth points to healthy external demand. Meanwhile, although import growth remains subdued, a pick-up in commodity import volumes has prevented falling commodity prices... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Nov.) The drop in the current account surplus in November was much smaller than expected, and should be followed by a renewed increase in coming months. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec. 14) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The rise in consumer price inflation in December was due in large part to price falls a year ago rather than any increases recently. The more significant point is that inflation remains subdued by... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Collapse in oil prices point to stagnant investment The Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results show that the collapse in oil prices has significantly undermined domestic business confidence and could well result in a near-stagnation in... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil price spells danger for Canadian economy The lower global crude oil prices fall, the bigger the negative impact will be for a net exporter like Canada. Alongside the severely overvalued housing market, the collapse in oil prices is a major... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How will lower oil prices affect housing? If production and employment are scaled back, housing markets in some oil-producing States, which have recently been among the most buoyant, could potentially suffer. But any drag that this may... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How might debt restructuring by Greece affect the IMF? Whether or not Syriza forms its next government, Greece is unlikely to default on its bail-out loans from the IMF. However, if it does so, the political fallout for the IMF itself would be serious. 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
