Global Markets Update Some market implications of the SNB's change in policy The SNB’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling of 1.20 francs per euro sent shockwaves through the financial markets today. This Update provides some of our initial reactions. 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank becomes latest to cut interest rates In a surprise decision today, Egypt’s central bank (CBE) became the latest in the emerging world to cut interest rates. Although the slide in oil prices is unlikely to have much direct impact on... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE may disappoint high expectations It is virtually certain that the ECB will announce some form of quantitative easing (QE) at its Governing Council meeting on January 22nd. But given the ECB’s natural caution and Germany’s objections... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilt yields hit new lows on growth, not deflation, concerns The decline in UK government bond yields – to record lows at the long end of the curve – appears to have largely reflected building concerns about growth, rather than deflation. While they have fallen... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sustained franc strength will hit Swiss economy hard The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) shock decision to abandon its ceiling for the franc reflected its judgement that the policy was just not sustainable. Unless it can reverse the franc’s appreciation... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lower oil prices unlikely to drive French retail recovery in 2015 With the outlook for French consumer spending still weak and flows of wealthy tourists unlikely to grow in the short-term, retail rents in Paris and Lyon are unlikely to experience particularly strong... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How will deflation affect the outlook for monetary policy? Headline inflation is set to be well below zero for the bulk of this year in many advanced economies, including the US and the euro-zone, and we think it will probably dip below zero in the UK and... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would euro-zone equities benefit from QE? The European Central Bank (ECB) looks set to announce a quantitative easing (QE) programme at its next policy meeting. However, we doubt that it would provide a large boost to euro-zone equities. The... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s Polish CPI data, which confirmed that the economy fell deeper into deflation, add to the evidence supporting a loosening of monetary policy over the coming months. However, the sharp rise... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Dec.) Following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier today, data showing that the trade deficit narrowed in December underline that the central bank has scope to loosen... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Oil exporters feel the squeeze The value of EM exports fell in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in November as the slide in oil prices dragged on exports from energy producing EMs. The further slump in oil prices... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in November to another record high encouragingly reflected a small rise in exports rather than the weakness of imports, suggesting that exporters are... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More loosening to follow RBI’s early rate cut The RBI has shocked markets by cutting its policy rates at an unscheduled meeting today, much sooner than most had expected. Given the weakness of the economy and recent falls in inflation, we... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate fell to an eight-year low of 2.4% y/y in December. But we suspect that the big fall in inflation is now behind us and the headline rate may even edge up over the coming... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
