Global Economics Update Should we now worry about the fall in copper prices too? The sharp overnight fall in copper prices seems to have been driven by investor panic rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals and, as such, it could swiftly be reversed. Admittedly, copper... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The small increase in euro-zone industrial production in November suggests that industry may well have fared better in Q4. But it does little to alter the picture of widespread weakness in the region... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will gold’s strong start to 2015 be sustained? The resilience of gold in the face of a surging dollar and collapsing oil price supports our view that the precious metal will recover further this year and next. The prospects for silver look... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How will German logistics occupier demand fare this year? Despite Germany’s recent slowdown, logistics operators and customers report that market conditions are above average. And, despite our forecasts for overall soft economic growth this year, trade and... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A brief period of “good” deflation on its way We now think that a brief period of mild deflation in the UK is more likely than not. However, this should be the “good” type of deflation which will give a boost to the economy. 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The decline in December’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector ended 2014 on a low point. Although it probably contributed strongly to GDP growth over Q4 as a whole, that looks unlikely to be... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in oil prices means deflation for most in 2015 The sharp drop in oil prices will push much of Central and South Eastern Europe into deflation over thecoming months and we have revised down our inflation forecasts accordingly. However, for... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Wholesale price inflation edged up in December, but the big picture is that it remains close to five-year lows. What's more, our proxy for core WPI dropped sharply last month, suggesting that domestic... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for the Chinese renminbi? Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: weakest growth since 2009 to trigger rate cuts The continued slide in oil prices will weigh heavily on Colombia’s economy. We have lowered our 2015 GDP growth forecast to just 2.5% (from 3.8% previously), which is well below the 4.3% forecasted by... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US government bonds? We still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise this year from its current level of around 1.9% as the Fed begins to tighten policy, but have decided to lower our end-2015 forecast significantly... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys hard to square with wage weakness The latest batch of survey data released this morning suggest that labour market conditions are even stronger than we previously believed and leaves the slowdown in wage growth looking even odder. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What would keep the Fed on hold? Despite the prospect of inflation spending most of this year below zero and the mixed news on wages, we still believe that the Fed will raise rates by June at the latest. Nonetheless, it is worth... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising stocks to undermine soybean and grain prices World soybean production remains on track for a record harvest and is set to exceed consumption for the third year in a row. With stock levels and the consumption-to-stocks ratio rising, we expect... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
