What next for the Chinese renminbi?

Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the renminbi has strengthened against most other currencies. Looking ahead, we think that the renminbi will end this year stronger against the dollar, but that short-lived bouts of depreciation against the US currency are likely. We see more scope for further gains against other currencies.