UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s figures on industrial production and trade presented a mixed picture of the health of the UK’s recovery towards the end of 2014. But 2015 should prove to be a better year for UK exporters... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Low oil price drives up US high-yield corporate spreads The spreads over Treasuries of US high-yield corporate bonds have risen further since the end of November, continuing their increase since the autumn. This has largely been driven by a rise in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Change in Sri Lankan leadership brings uncertainty Opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena has emerged victorious in Sri Lanka’s presidential election. Markets have responded favourably, perhaps not so much to the result itself as to encouraging... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE now better placed to weather a Greek exit from the euro-zone Renewed fears of a Greek exit from the euro-zone have raised concerns about contagion to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This is understandable. After all, when the threat of euro-zone break-up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian logistics rental values unlikely to rebound this year Strong growth in Italian logistics occupier market activity suggests that rental values may finally have found a floor. Yet with the Italian economy set to stagnate this year, and with ample spare... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French and Spanish Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s country data on industrial production and trade suggest that the euro-zone’s major economies have continued to stagnate at best, increasing the threat of a prolonged bout of deflation in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much lower will unemployment get? The unemployment rate has fallen below the level consistent with stable price pressure in recent months. It is unlikely to fall much further, as the pool of attractive job candidates is drying up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Czech inflation last month, to just 0.1% y/y, was due to both base effects and the impact of lower oil prices on fuel inflation. There is a risk that the headline inflation rate... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in inflation unlikely to worry RBI Consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in December as the unwinding of favourable base effects from food inflation more than offset the impact of tumbling oil prices and weak core price... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) A modest pick-up in consumer price inflation in December, on the back of a sharp rise in vegetable prices, is a reminder that Chinese inflation is much less sensitive to oil prices than inflation in... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Deflation: Can "it" happen here after all? The collapse in global crude oil prices means that consumer price inflation will fall below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the next 12 months. Nevertheless, the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are TIPS to growing expectations of deflation? 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
