Japan Economics Update Fiscal policy still becoming tighter despite rising spending The recently-announced supplementary budget is small by past standards and does not significantlyalter the economic outlook. While the budget for the coming fiscal year foresees a fresh record high... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World growth starts 2015 at slightly slower pace Business surveys indicate that global growth slowed further in December. But the slowdown was not as steep as suggested by some media reports, nor is it sufficient to justify the slump in oil prices... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: Recession to deepen and default likely in 2015 The Venezuelan economy faces a multi-year recession following the recent fall in oil prices. GDPprobably contracted by 3.5% last year and we now suspect that it could decline by another 5.0% thisyear... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Temporary deflation won’t prevent rate hikes The latest fall in crude oil prices means that headline CPI inflation will drop below zero in January and could remain in negative territory for most of the year. Nevertheless, this bout of deflation... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) It is too soon to tell whether the slight moderation in the month-on-month rate of house price inflation in November is the first sign that price pressures are coming off the boil again. Regardless... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity still subdued The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was steady, but still relatively sluggish, at the end of last year. Manufacturers in some of the non-BRIC EMs, such as... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Oil price decline to bolster recovery in 2015 The halving of oil prices over the past six months should provide some timely support to the economic recovery. Indeed, coupled with the freezing of energy bills this winter, lower oil prices should... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three political risks to watch out for in 2015 2014 was the year that political risk returned to Emerging Europe and the political and economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to reverberate this year too. But we think there are... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro weakness set to be sustained Recent strong downward pressure on the euro exchange rate might ease in the very near term. But further ahead, poor euro-zone growth, the implementation of quantitative easing and fears for the region... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are euro-zone property markets already looking weaker in 2015? Despite growing concerns about the euro-zone economic outlook, we expect rental growth to improve in 2015. Indeed, with the bund yield and the euro both falling further in the last month, there may be... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of the latest slump in oil prices There is no compelling reason why oil prices cannot fall further in the near term, but the current market panic looks increasingly overdone. Other commodity prices have held up relatively well. We... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Demand for mortgage lending contracted at the fastest pace since the financial crisis in the final quarter of 2014, but lenders expect a small recovery at the start of this year. By contrast, demand... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Dec.) While the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS services survey in December brought more evidence of a soft end to 2014, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. Indeed, the recent... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to December’s euro-zone PMI added to signs that the economy is barely expanding. And with the price indices highlighting the threat of deflation, the ECB remains under intense... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The rise in December’s whole economy PMIs suggests that, in spite of the plunge in oil prices at the end of last year, economic activity in the Gulf has held up reasonably well. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
