China Economics Update Shining a light on “stealth” stimulus Markets have latched onto two low-key policy developments at the start of 2015 as evidence that policymakers are pursuing both monetary and fiscal stimulus by stealth. We don’t think either amounts to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is a Grexit now more likely than ever? The absence of such intense market pressures suggests that the probability of an imminent Greek exit from the euro-zone is lower than it was in 2011 and 2012. But should market pressures reintensify... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation fell for the second consecutive month in December, confirming that it has peaked. We expect the CPI rate to fall further over the coming months, and to remain close to the central... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are supermarket property values headed for a dip? Confirmation that the major supermarket chains are actively trimming their current and planned property portfolios supports our view that the sector will underperform for some years yet. But it also... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf on course to post current account deficit this year We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies are set to run a current account deficit this year for the first time in over a decade, and the latest plunge in oil prices means this deficit could... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price plunge won’t distract MPC from underlying picture With the recovery showing signs of frailty and the chances of deflation growing, the MPC is under little immediate pressure to raise interest rates. But since lower oil prices should put the spring... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Dec.) & EZ Retail Sales (Nov.) December’s EC business and consumer survey did little to alter the picture of weak euro-zone GDP growth at the end of 2014 and suggested that renewed concerns about Greece and Russia offset the... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Early end to strike doesn’t solve coal sector’s problems The end to strike action in India’s coal sector three days earlier than planned should ensure a quick resumption to normal production levels, which will reduce the risk of blackouts in the near term... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The sharp fall in Brazil industrial production in November leaves it on course to contract in Q4 and suggests the economy ended 2014 on a predictably weak footing. GDP is likely to have done little... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month, which took it back into double-digits, rules out any possibility of an interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Egypt at next week’s meeting. 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) December’s Economic Sentiment Indicators provide further evidence that, despite the headwinds from both the euro-zone and Russia, growth in Central and Eastern Europe held up well at the end of last... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) The surprisingly large 0.9% gain in house prices during December reported by the Halifax hides a further cooling in the underlying growth rate. But the stamp duty reform, strong economic backdrop and... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A bleak future for South Africa’s metals mining sector Precious metals mining in South Africa is in long-term decline and lower prices are undermining profitability. Although the country’s near-monopoly on global platinum and palladium reserves suggests... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey & Hungary Republic Ind. Prod. (Nov.) The weakness of Turkish industrial production in November, which grew by just 0.7% y/y and fell by 0.1% over the month, provides an early sign that GDP may have contracted over the quarter. In... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) All peripheral economies narrowed their budget deficits in November, but fiscal consolidation is doing little to tackle debt ratios in some countries and they may only get worse if the euro-zone... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation steady for now despite oil price plunge Retail fuel prices have fallen rapidly in China, as elsewhere. In December though, China’s vegetable prices rose sharply, with the result that we are unlikely to see the large fall in headline... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
