Europe Economics Update Lower oil price and euro not all good for periphery The recent sharp drop in both the price of crude oil and the value of the euro should have some positive effect on euro-zone economic output. We think that, on balance, the peripheral countries should... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Nov.) November’s fall in South African manufacturing production was perhaps overdue given the strength of output in previous months. The sector is still likely to have contributed positively to GDP growth... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q4) Today’s RICS survey shows that activity in the construction sector softened a touch at the end of last year. However, forward-looking aspects for the survey suggest that construction firms still have... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Ominous signs from Lat Am current accounts Balance of payments problems in Venezuela and Argentina have deflected attention away from the fact that current account positions across much of the rest of Latin America have deteriorated... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to focus on deflation, not politics Data last week, including the drop in HICP inflation to -0.2%, heightened the risk of a prolonged bout of deflation in the single currency area. But on the face of it at least, the escalating... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Another strong jobs report keeps early Fed tightening on the cards 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the UK experience deflation too? The halving of the oil price since the summer has already tipped the euro-zone into deflation and looks set to turn the headline inflation rate in the US and Japan negative shortly too. We still think... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves provide a further fillip to growth The boost to economic activity from the further plunge in oil prices and decline in 10-year Treasury yields since late last year will more than offset any additional drag from the further rise in the... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The combination of a decent 252,000 rise in payroll employment in December and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, from 5.8%, still leaves the door open to the Fed raising interest rates... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) Mexican industrial production growth slowed in November, but the bigger picture is that both the manufacturing and construction sectors are performing well and should continue to do so. As such... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.)2 The 4,300 decline in employment in December is a little disappointing, particularly as it follows a 10,700 fall the month before that. To some extent, however, the declines in the final two months of... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What would a Grexit mean for Asia? Problems in the euro-zone have been dragged back into the spotlight by the inconclusive recent presidential election in Greece. In general, Emerging Asia is well-placed to cope if the euro-zone does... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in December was enough to ensure that the central bank met its target for 2014 but doesn’t spell the end of the country’s inflation battle. We expect it grind lower... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
