Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Plan for NCBs to conduct QE will further limit its effects The proposed plan for national central banks to implement quantitative easing for the ECB has the benefit that these banks are best-placed to design an effective policy for their own economies. But... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) The sharp slowdown in South African inflation, to 5.3% y/y, in December was driven almost entirely by the impact of lower oil prices on petrol inflation. Core price pressures remain strong. But with... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s optimism reduces chances of near-term easing Apart from a minor tweak to its lending programmes, the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today and signalled no concern about the impact of lower oil prices. The chances of additional... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP by Sector (Q4) Today's full breakdown of Q4 GDP suggests that a key reason for China's better-than-expected growth last quarter lies with the recent stock market rally, which appears to have driven a sharp pick-up... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rate hikes looking more and more distant The recent drop in oil prices is not the only reason to think that consumer price inflation will remain low in New Zealand over the next couple of years. Domestic price pressures are also fading. We... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Danish central bank needs to do more to defend euro peg The viability of Denmark’s currency peg with the euro has been called into question following the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling. We think that the Danish peg will... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The larger than expected decline in November's manufacturing sales suggests that the economy lost some momentum in the final quarter of last year. We estimate the economy grew by close to 2.5%... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices should rebound in 2015 Recent weakness in US steel prices has mainly been driven by supply-side factors, not least Chinese supplies flooding the world market, as well as lower input prices. Considering the protectionist... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s latest forecasts are still too optimistic The IMF’s latest forecasts for the world economy contain little new news because most of the changes reflect the Fund catching up with other forecasters since its last update in October. Although we... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing market starting to cool Good news remains thin on the ground in Brazil, but we take some comfort from the fact that the country’s frothy housing market has so far managed to avoid a hard landing. It’s still early days, but... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Saudi GDP growth in Q4, to just 2.0% y/y, provides the first evidence that the plunge in oil prices has caused growth to soften. But so far, there are no signs of a collapse in output. 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Has demand from overseas fuelled the rally in Treasuries? 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What next for mortgage interest rates? The decline in long-term Treasury yields almost certainly means that 30-year mortgage interest rates have further to fall and that any subsequent rises will be more gradual than we previously... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary indicators Monitor (Dec. 14) The growth rates of the various measures of broad money have remained robust even after the Fed halted its large-scale asset purchases late last year. For 2014 as a whole, M3*, our estimate of the... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
