Europe Economics Update Syriza victory threatens to reignite crisis Syriza’s resounding victory in the Greek general election looks set to result in a protracted period of heightened uncertainty over Greece’s future inside the euro-zone and could threaten to reignite... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's rate cut likely to be the last for some time The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 100bp to 8.5%, the lowest since 2005, over the weekend. Although inflation and money supply growth have both slowed sharply in recent months, we... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Dec.) The trade deficit fell to the lowest level since June 2013 in December, and is set to narrow further as lower energy prices are still not fully reflected in import costs. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rate cuts possible, but won't help economy much The Bank of Canada's surprise quarter point rate cut to 0.75% last week, which came in response to the collapse in world oil prices, will only have a small positive impact on the economy. Unless oil... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December's increase in core inflation, to 2.2% from 2.1%, reflects sector-specific factors and pass-through effects of a lower Canadian dollar already judged by the Bank of Canada as temporary. The... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand adds to pressure from ample supply The S&P GSCI Agriculture Commodity Price Index has begun 2015 the same way it finished 2014 – on a downward path. The index has fallen 4% since the start of the year, dragged down by a near 10% drop... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery set to strengthen in 2015 The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) November’s 6% drop in existing home sales always looked suspicious, given the strength of recent macro-economic data and the drop in borrowing costs. So confirmation that sales ended the year on a... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global economy starts the year on a stronger footing Today’s flash manufacturing PMIs may be the first sign that the world economy is starting to reap the benefits of lower oil prices. They should also allay fears that the world economy is slipping into... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to look for in Sunday’s Greek election In this Update, we outline some of the key points to look for in this Sunday’s crucial Greek election. While much is likely to depend on coalition negotiations early next week, we suspect that the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Two cheers for the ECB The ECB’s Governing Council deserves credit for meeting the demandingly high level of expectations with last week’s announcement of a quantitative easing programme worth at least €1trn. The size and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver to out-perform gold as both climb further An environment of rising gold prices and improving sentiment towards the global economy should see the price of silver out-perform its fellow precious metal. We are raising our forecasts for silver... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak demand to push the price of cocoa lower Falling cocoa grindings in Europe, North America and Asia suggest that the world has lost some of its sweet tooth. We expect weaker demand and ample supply to push the price of cocoa lower. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
