Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB QE provides modest bump to markets The ECB’s larger-than-expected quantitative easing programme has led to a rally in Central European equities and currencies, although this hasn’t been substantial. Meanwhile, the yields on Ukrainian... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone QE largely positive for UK Anything that kick-starts the UK’s biggest trading partner clearly has the potential to be good news this side of the Channel too. That said, the main channel through which we think QE will work in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Greece’s election be more important for EZ bonds than QE? While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's patient approach at odds with incoming data While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise interest rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Does Singapore’s currency regime still suit its needs? The decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to abandon its exchange rate ceiling has created questions about the sustainability of other currency regimes. We think there is little chance of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico can cut interest rates even as the Fed begins to hike We think the prevailing view that close economic ties with the US will force Mexico to raise interest rates if, as expected, the Fed starts to tighten later this year is wrong. Indeed, with lower oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of King Abdullah’s passing The passing away of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has raised concerns about the issue of succession and whether this might lead to disruptions to policymaking in the Kingdom. The key point, though, is... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s retail sales figures painted a surprisingly upbeat picture of high street spending over the Christmas period. Although we doubt spending growth can remain this strong, the prospects for the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and Euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMIs (Jan) The flash PMIs for China, the euro-zone and Japan all rose in January. Admittedly, the increases were small, but signs of stronger domestic growth in China and a stabilisation in the euro-zone economy... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Limited demand boost from cheaper oil The plunge in crude oil prices since last summer will reduce the cost of Japan’s energy imports by around 2.5% of GDP in the near term. However, much of the windfall will be saved and the boost to... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small rise in the euro-zone composite PMI suggested that growth has remained very slow at the start of this year, confirming that the ECB’s latest policy support is sorely needed. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Lower oil prices to delay rate hikes, but not in Nigeria The dramatic fall in oil prices pushed inflation down in much of Sub-Saharan Africa at the end of last year, and it is likely to slow further this year. This would lead policymakers in some of the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Following stronger-than-expected industrial output growth for December, today's flash manufacturing PMI reading provides a further sign that, although the economy continues to face headwinds from a... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (January) The flash manufacturing PMI was virtually unchanged in January, and still points to a solid recovery in the sector. 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Today's advance estimate suggests Korea's economy ended 2014 on a soft note, with growth slowing to a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q4 from 0.9% the quarter before. However, growth should rebound in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
