Canada Chart Pack Low oil prices will hit business profits hard Since oil now accounts for half of Canada's production-weighted commodity price index, the collapse in crude oil prices represents a big downside risk to the outlook for business operating profits... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has foreign demand contributed to the rally in US Treasuries? One development that may have contributed to the rally in US Treasuries, and which seems likely to persist, is demand from overseas in response to rock-bottom bond yields elsewhere in the developed... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling commodity prices weigh on markets Latin America’s financial markets have suffered so far this year following fresh declines in the prices of a number of the region’s commodity exports – notably copper and oil. Most equities and... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian government starting to face up to fiscal realities Today’s meeting between President Putin and government ministers to discuss anti-crisis measures and budget amendments suggests that the authorities are finally starting to acknowledge the new... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Danish central bank needs to do more to defend euro peg The viability of Denmark’s currency peg with the euro has been called into question following the Swiss National Bank’s decision to abandon its exchange rate ceiling. We think that the Danish peg will... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will we tell if the ECB’s QE is likely to be a success? 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) The rise in housing starts in December, as well as the upward revisions to the previous two months’ data, suggests that homebuilding was gathering momentum in the closing stages of 2014. The latest... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Patient Fed now unlikely to raise rates until mid-year While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Industrial Production (Dec.) The rebound in Polish industrial production growth, to 8.4% y/y, last month was flattered by working day effects, but even so, it provides an encouraging early sign that the economy is weathering... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fall in US oil rigs should lead to a fall in output, just not yet The fall in the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US is the latest sign that firms are beginning to respond to the collapse in oil prices by cutting back on investment. However, we expect US oil... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price on track for $1,400 The continued recovery in the gold price to $1,300 per ounce today means that it has already hit our (relatively bullish) target for the end of this year. Looking ahead, one big unknown is the market... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might Poland’s economic challenges mean for property? The growing risk of a deflationary spiral means the Polish Central Bank is likely to reduce interest rates to support demand. But the fall in the zloty against the Swiss franc could nevertheless... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jan.) & Labour market (Nov./Dec.) The latest labour market figures showed that the recovery in real wages is gathering pace. Despite this, an interest rate rise still looks a way off, with the MPC turning its attention in its recent... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House prices to receive boost from stamp duty reform Housing market activity dropped sharply in the second half of 2014 as fears of a rise in interest rates, high housing valuations and a lack of stock on the market constrained demand. But several... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
