Global Markets Update Will the ECB’s QE keep the euro under pressure? While the onset of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) is likely to weigh on the euro in time, exchange rates are two sides of a coin, so the fate of the currency will also depend on the prospects for... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q4) While the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP brings further evidence that the UK’s economic recovery lost a little pace towards the end of the last year, the recent sharp fall in oil prices suggests that... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2014) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2014 GDP, which showed an expansion of 3.3% over the year as a whole, is consistent with a modest slowdown in economic growth from 3.3% y/y in Q3 to 3.0% y/y... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jan.) The renewed fall in small business confidence this month underlines the fragility of the economic recovery. 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength puts exporters under pressure China’s exporters continued to gain global market share last year but the recent sharp rise in the renminbi against other emerging market currencies is likely to put them under pressure in 2015. US... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget deficit projections dependent on rate outlook Although the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) latest projections show the Federal budget deficit at only 2.6% of GDP in fiscal year 2015, it does still expect the deficit to widen again before the... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Outlook for US homebuilding is positive for lumber Stronger economic growth in the US and rising wages should provide a platform for a rebound in the number of housing starts this year, boosting the price of lumber. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Supply to continue to weigh on iron ore prices The latest quarterly production reports by the large iron ore producers demonstrate a continued commitment to ramp up supply, despite the nearly 50% drop in iron ore prices last year. In this Metals &... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Electricity shortages to stymie South Africa’s recovery There are encouraging signs that South Africa’s power shortages will ease in the medium term. But this year, they are likely to continue to drag on economic growth. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Impact of weaker yen on export volumes remains elusive The rise in Japan’s exports to the US appears to reflect the strength of the recovery there rather than yen weakness. Indeed, evidence that the plunge in the yen is boosting export volumes remains... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier markets go from strength to strength Recent business surveys which suggest that the economy may be starting to cool may be misleading given that these same surveys have recently overstated the economy’s strength. Indeed, steady growth in... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis to force larger Russian bank recapitalisations The collapse in the ruble appears to have wiped out a large chunk of the Russian banking sector’s capital and we think the government will need to expand its current recapitalisation plans... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in the German Ifo index suggests that fears about the effect of the Greek crisis on the German economy have so far been offset by the perceived benefits of a weaker euro and ECB... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s economy comes back into the spotlight After a prolonged period of exchange rate stability, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosened its grip on the pound this month, and the currency has since fallen by 3.5% against the US dollar. The CBE... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
