Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4) The labour market continues to tighten, as the economic recovery is picking up speed. However, the continued slowdown in inflation suggests that the Bank of Japan still has more work to do. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices, Unemployment, Industrial Production & Household Spending (Dec.) The labour market continues to tighten, as the economic recovery is picking up speed. However, the continued slowdown in inflation suggests that the Bank of Japan still has more work to do. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is very low inflation the new norm? CPI inflation looks set to turn negative in the next few months. Whilst we expect the UK’s period of deflation to be short and shallow, there are a number of factors which nonetheless should mean that... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4) The homeownership rate fell again at the end of last year, but the decade-long decline in the share of the population who own their home may now be drawing to an end. In the meantime, however, supply... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How exposed are EMs to contagion from Greece? The fact that the mounting concerns about Greece’s future within the euro-zone have had only a limited impact on financial markets across the emerging world appears to reflect the belief that problems... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s really happening to US inflation expectations? To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What next for the dysfunctional aluminium market? The aluminium market remains dysfunctional, as high stocks struggle to find their way onto the market, leading to elevated price premiums. Supply into the physical market should improve this year... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Has there really been a plunge in inflation expectations? 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC to tread cautiously as deflation approaches The chances of interest rates rising soon look even slimmer now that a spell of deflation is on the horizon. However, if we are right in expecting deflation to be brief and of the “good” sort, this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kganyago lengthens ‘pause’, no rate hikes until 2016 Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but struck a significantly less hawkish tone in the accompanying statement. Accordingly, we no longer expect rates to be raised this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukrainian default looking inevitable News that Ukraine’s government plans to hold “discussions” with bondholders has been widely interpreted as a precursor to some form of default, and dollar bond yields have jumped accordingly in recent... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Next refinancing boom won’t be as big as the last The recent decline in mortgage interest rates will trigger a refinancing boom that will span the first half of 2015. But it will be more modest than the one in 2012, and the benefits in terms of lower... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further will Moscow rental values fall? Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A strong employment gain should trigger wages rebound Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in January, which would broadly match the increase in December. As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Unemployment (Jan.) January’s drop in German HICP inflation well into negative territory highlights the strength of deflationary pressures in even the euro-zone’s strongest economies. While falls in prices should prove... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
