Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs remain the EM weak spot Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP expanded at a modest pace of just over 4% y/y in November as the BRIC economies continued to disappoint. Meanwhile, the latest activity figures provide... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was slightly below the 3.0% consensus forecast but, following the breakneck 5.0% gain in the third quarter of last year, this slowdown is nothing to... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large improvement in South Africa’s trade balance in December underlines the degree to which the country is benefiting from lower oil prices. This should ease pressure on the rand... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) December’s money and credit figures brought some tentative signs that lending flows are finally beginning to strengthen and so are providing some timely support to the economic recovery. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard will lower prices hit oil producers’ budgets? The collapse in oil prices will, of course, have a big negative impact on the fiscal positions of the world’s major oil producers. But countries with large fiscal buffers, including the Gulf economies... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) December’s household borrowing figures provided some tentative signs that we havenow reached a turning point in housing market activity. And, given the strongeconomic backdrop, household borrowing... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jan.) & Unemployment (Dec.) January’s drop in core euro-zone inflation to a record low brought further confirmation that deflationary pressures in the currency union go well beyond the effect of falling oil and energy prices. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Equities hit choppy waters Chinese equities turned more volatile over the past month, and there are signs that some steam may be coming out of the market. Meanwhile, market interest rates have been relatively stable, with a... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) Net lending to the commercial property sector contracted again in December. But the pace of the contraction appears to be easing, perhaps a sign that an end to the deleveraging process may now be in... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update All eyes on the union budget The government’s next budget, due to beannounced on 28th February, has taken on even more importance than normal, with the ReserveBank of India (RBI) looking for fiscal consolidation and investors... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reasons to be optimistic about Korea’s economy in 2015 Korea stands to be one of Emerging Asia’s biggest beneficiaries from lower oil prices, and will also be boosted by a recovery in the housing market and by expansionary fiscal policy. We think most... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) In contrast to the earlier BBA data, the Bank of England reported a rise in approvals for house purchase in December. With mortgage rates at record lows, and consumer confidence at seven-year highs... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ pinning hopes on strong Shunto wage deal A strong rise in base pay in the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) would help convince the Bank of Japan that the current weakness in inflation will prove temporary. A tight labour market and strong... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q4 est.) While Spain’s economy continued to grow solidly in Q4 last year, deepening deflation pressures threaten to de-rail the recovery. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The strength of January’s GfK/NOP composite index of consumer confidence suggests that consumers’ spirits have been lifted by their stronger purchasing power, partly as a result of the collapse in the... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
