Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) Indonesia today reported another quarter of weak GDP growth. The figures underline that the country’s new president, Joko Widodo, faces a tough challenge to reinvigorate the economy, despite a... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oman to muddle through in 2015-16 but fiscal squeeze looming Oman is one of the few Gulf States that isn’t well placed to weather a period of low oil prices and, as a result, a fiscal squeeze will be needed. The authorities may be able to muddle through over... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Price pressure moderates despite rebound in activity The economy appears to have grown rapidly last quarter, and the labour market has not been as tight since the late 1990s. However, wage growth remains sluggish despite a temporary boost from winter... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower mortgage rates won't prevent housing correction Lower mortgage rates won't prevent home sales and prices falling sharply in regions directly hit by the slump in oil prices. While they might support housing activity in other key markets, we fear... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there more upside for equities in Japan than in the euro-zone? Despite the strong performance of equities in the euro-zone so far this year, we think there is more upside for those in Japan. Our end-2015 forecast for the DAX is 11,000, which is barely above its... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The amount of oil being put into storage in the US shows little sign of levelling off as weak consumption, high output and arbitrage activity all add to demand for storage. 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is deflation good or bad for gold? While the price of gold may well rise further when inflation is high than when it is low, periods of deflation can also be positive for the precious metal. This is because of the financial and... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update European gas prices set to plummet European gas prices have been under downward pressure since early 2014. Given the plunge in oil prices, plentiful LNG supplies and high storage levels, prices should continue to fall in 2015. 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rate cut coming in March Having left its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.0% earlier today, the Polish MPC pretty much confirmed at the post-meeting press conference that a rate cut is on the way in March. For now, we... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the price of sugar remain to the downside We expect the price of sugar to remain close to its current level this year due to the continuing glut on the world market. A decision by India to re-introduce export subsidies would push the global... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Prospects for equities look brighter in Japan than in the euro-zone 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Has the housing boom run its course? We are not forecasting a return to boom conditions in 2015. However, we do think that the outlook for both house prices and housing market activity is rather stronger than is typically believed, as a... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prove resistant Given the significant headwinds – a strengthening US dollar, slower growth in China’s industrial sector and the collapse in oil prices – metals prices held their ground well in January. The two... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Could QE come back on the agenda? With deflation imminent, QE underway in the euro-zone and sterling rising, a case could be made for the MPC to restart its own asset purchase programme. But recent falls in market interest rates mean... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Risks skewed towards unexpected rate cuts – for now… Today’s decision by the People’s Bank of China to lower reserve requirements underlines the current heightened risk of policy surprises in the EM world. We continue to think that any further surprise... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The further drop in 30-year mortgage interest rates, to an 18-month low of 3.8%, is starting to be reflected in mortgage applications. Refinancing activity is set for a sustained boom, while the lift... 4th February 2015 · 1 min read
