Europe Economics Focus Is deflation here to stay this time? The latest bout of deflation in the euro-zone looks set to last rather longer than the brief period of falling prices seen back in 2009. With vast amounts of slack in the economy and inflation... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) At face value, today’s GDP data for Q4 suggest that India’s economy slowed at the end of 2014, but that it is still growing faster than China’s. However, the GDP calculations under the new methodology... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports slip from December record While China’s commodity import volumes dipped in January, they are still holding up. With the exception of coal, the latest data underpin our expectation that China’s commodity imports will continue... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Delayed elections highlight weak institutions in Nigeria The decision to delay Nigeria’s general election by six weeks has cast the spotlight back onto Nigeria’s weak institutions. While there have been some improvements over the past few years, much more... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economic recovery maintain its pace? The latest news suggests that the economic recovery is getting back on track after a slowdown towards the end of last year. Indeed, we remain optimistic about the growth outlook. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Turkey Ind. Prod. (Dec.) & Czech CPI (Jan.) The rebound in Turkish industrial production growth to 2.6% y/y in December provides an encouraging sign that the economy may have emerged from its recent slump. But even so, growth over Q4 as a whole... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pulls inflation to five-year low We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen to the lowest in more than five years in January, dragged down by further declines in commodity costs and the ususal volatility around Chinese New... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jan.) The jump in the outlook component of today’s Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) suggests that economic activity is picking up speed at the start of the new year. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) The sharp fall in headline trade growth in January is not cause for alarm as it largely reflects the usual volatility ahead of Chinese New Year, along with the fall in global commodity prices which... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rise in consumer confidence for the second straight month should be followed by a further improvement as households benefit from lower energy prices. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Dec.) The current account surplus rose to a fresh high in December, and should continue to improve in coming months as the trade balance may return to surplus. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Can educated women save Japan? Efforts to bring more women into Japan’s labour market have enjoyed success in recent years.However, it remains the case that relatively few educated women are in paid work. We estimatethat lifting... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's stronger than expected 35,400 gain in employment was driven entirely by a surge in part-time jobs. Accordingly, we wouldn't read too much into the small decline in the official jobless rate... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Strong US Employment Report bolsters case for June rate hike 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly A sustained rally in oil prices? Oil prices have rebounded by over 20% in the last week during a period of highly volatile trading. The rally was sparked by growing evidence of declining US rig counts and multiple announcements of... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How big a threat is Fed tightening to gold prices? If nothing else changes, earlier hikes in interest rates by the US central bank would be likely to undermine the prices of precious metals, notably gold and silver. The 2% fall in the gold price after... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
