Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) December’s rise in South African manufacturing production showed that the sector ended the year on a high. There are also signs that manufacturers started this year fairly strongly. Although growth is... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jan.) The latest BRC Retail Sales Monitor suggests that consumer spending retained a fair degree of momentum at the start of the year. What’s more low energy prices should ensure that spending remains... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Egyptian inflation fell back in January and looks set to ease further over the coming months. Further interest rate cuts are likely this year, but we suspect that the CBE will wait until the effects... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rebased CPI data won’t change the big picture Forthcoming consumer price inflation data for January will be the first in the rebased series but, unlike the recently revised GDP data, we doubt that this will have a spectacular impact on headline... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Inflation fell to a five-year low in January but we don’t think this should spark concerns over impending deflation. The drop was largely due to volatile food prices ahead of Chinese New Year and... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Danish CPI (Jan. 15) January’s falls in Swiss and Danish CPI inflation into or further into negative territory highlight the need for central banks to do more to prevent their respective currencies appreciating further... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery set to be slow-going Following last year’s sharp downturn, economic growth in Latin America should improve this year and next. But the pace of the recovery will be slow-going and GDP growth will remain far weaker than... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Five key questions about the renminbi After sharp gains against most other currencies over the past year, the renminbi is no longer clearly undervalued. But there is no strong reason to believe – as many now seem to – that the renminbi is... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook 2015 to be a year of recovering prices 2014 was the fourth successive year of poor performance by commodities, especially relative to bonds and equities, but we believe 2015 will be the year when many finally turn the corner. The recent... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 powerless to contain Greece risk With Greece once more dominating the headlines, officials from the US and elsewhere are likely to have used the G20 meeting in Istanbul to urge euro-zone governments to do all they can to prevent the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lift in wheat price is not the start of an upward trend The price of US wheat posted its first weekly rise since mid-December last week, rallying close to 5%. However, with ample global supplies, we think this rise will prove to be temporary. 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the latest currency moves in Central Europe After a year of stability, Central Europe’s currency markets sprung back to life over the past month as the ECB unveiled a QE programme and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to scrap its exchange... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can capital controls save Greece? The Greek Government may need to resort to capital controls to prevent the flow of deposits from its banks, particularly if the ECB withdraws access to central bank funding altogether. But once the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) Mexican inflation fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 3.1% in January and looks set to remain close to the central bank’s 3% target throughout 2015-16. As a result, monetary policy is likely to... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
