Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.7% in January, from 4.9% in December, which reflects the recent softening in housing activity triggered by the slump in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil edging towards an energy crisis An intensifying drought in Brazil has made it increasingly likely that the authorities will implement some form of power rationing over the coming months. Much remains uncertain, but we think that... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Rally in Russian equities following ceasefire set to stall 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus What next for global metals demand? Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Have Central London retail yields hit a floor? While yields in most of the UK property market fell further in the final stages of last year, yields for Central London shops edged up. However, they are already exceptionally low relative to their... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Even if we ignore the 0.8% m/m drop in January's retail sales, since it was entirely due to a massive 9.3% m/m price-related slump in the value of gasoline station sales, non-gas sales were still only... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Prospects of supply cuts boost oil and coal prices The main story since the beginning of the year has been the recovery in the price of oil, which is now 20% above its recent lows, reflecting the first signs of supply cuts in response to the previous... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for weaker growth, North Africa to outperform The fall in oil prices has led to a sharp reversal of fortunes in the Middle East and North Africa. Fears of steep falls in output in the Gulf are overdone, but growth will weaken in the coming years... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Unlike the recently revised GDP data, the rebasing of India’s consumer price data appears to have done little to alter the headline numbers. The big picture is that inflation is still comfortably... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices to remain in the doldrums Lower input costs, weakening demand and overproduction led to sharp falls in Chinese steel prices over the last year. In our view, these factors will continue to weigh on the Chinese steel market in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What’s behind the EMBI Global spread? The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index, which includes the dollar denominated debt of 61 emerging market governments, is still around 430bp despite falling slightly in recent weeks... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that deflation is now on the horizon, but that it will be fairly short-lived. Indeed, the stronger medium-term inflation forecast was a warning to... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s disappointing stagnation of euro-zone industrial production confirmed that the region’s economy remains far too weak to ward off the threat of deflation. 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
