UK Commercial Property Outlook Another year of double-digit returns We have raised our forecasts for commercial property returns compared to our previous Analyst and now expect the market to deliver another year of double-digit returns in both 2015 and 2016. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Aggressive rate cuts unlikely in Indonesia With inflation set to stay elevated until the end of the year and the current account deficit likely to remain a source of vulnerability, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to signal the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Price pressures building slowly The Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target still looks out of reach, but recent data do at least include some promising signs that price pressures are picking up. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2014 Q4) Advances for house purchase in the fourth quarter declined compared to the final quarter of 2013, reflecting the mood of buyer caution. But the share of loans to first-time buyers is still high, and... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Feb.) February’s further improvement in ZEW investor sentiment provided some reassurance that confidence in the German economy is holding up despite the ongoing turmoil in Greece. But this could prove short... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) CPI inflation reached a record low in January and we think that it is more likely than not that inflation turns negative soon. But with few signs that low inflation is becoming ingrained, the UK’s... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan.) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack New evidence of PBOC intervention to support renminbi Data for January showed Chinese banks continuing to sell FX to the non-bank sector last month. This has a few implications. First, the fact that banks were net sellers despite a record trade surplus... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Household debt concerns to keep Korean rates on hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate on hold at 2.0% after the government softened its pressure for further loosening. Looking ahead, we think persistent concerns about high household... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Revised) Singapore's economy picked up in the fourth quarter, despite a contraction in the manufacturing sector. Lower oil prices will help Singapore's economy in 2015, but slowing credit growth will keep... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan. 15) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What to make of record-low dry freight costs The further decline in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), to its lowest level since the series was first compiled in 1985, provides some more colour on current trends in the supply and demand for ships and... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
