Europe Economics Update French structural reform efforts welcome but insufficient The French Government’s decision yesterday to force its reform package through the lower house of Parliament showed a welcome political commitment to implement growth-boosting measures. But the bill... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The modest 0.2% m/m increase in industrial production in January reflects the early impact of the collapse in energy prices on the mining sector. Otherwise, manufacturing output increased by a... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier and investment indicators fall sharply in Moscow A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) With mortgage credit conditions loosening, the labour market on fire and household formation strengthening, January’s decline in housing starts should soon give way to solid gains in homebuilding. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Is the bull market in US Treasuries over? US Treasuries have come under pressure recently amid signs that the labour market is on fire. But while we think the bull market in government bonds may be over, we expect only a slow grind higher in... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas to burn brighter this year A combination of lower production and higher demand means that US natural gas prices should rise over the next few years, regardless of the weather. 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stabilising public debt remains a daunting task The Bank of Japan continues to express confidence in its ability to meet its 2% inflation target. But even that would probably not be enough to reduce the public debt burden. In a best-case scenario... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment data (Dec.) Today’s data from the labour market offer further encouragement for the commercial property market. In particular, the high level of vacancies indicates that most firms are still in an expansionary... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s MPC meeting showed that the Committee is more divided about the next move in interest rates than the unanimous vote would suggest. The healthy labour market figures released... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cautious Bank of Japan still set to ease again in late-April Governor Kuroda today expressed the usual confidence about Japan’s economic prospects and the likelihood of price pressures picking up. But with the recent economic data disappointing and inflation... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee continues to outperform The rupee has been the best performing major EM currency so far this year. This is in part due to falling commodity prices which have helped to lower India’s import bill, but it is also the result of... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why is gold sliding again? Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Global markets unprepared for a Greek exit from the euro-zone 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private debt in EMs: big risk or damp squib? Concerns about the rapid growth of private sector debt in EMs have resurfaced in recent days. Our view remains unchanged: fears that a debt crisis will engulf the entire emerging world are overdone... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Dwindling surpluses to boost nickel prices Falling ore stocks at China’s ports and lower ore exports from the Philippines are likely to curb Chinese refined nickel output this year. Given steady demand growth, prices should rebound. 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
